Friday's Miscellany 09/06 & 09/13

38 North

·         38 North Interview with Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt on the UN Panel of Experts Latest Report to the Security Council Published Today

·         Cutting Through the Hype About the North Korean Ballistic Missile Submarine Threat

·         Putting North Korea’s New Short-Range Missiles Into Perspective

Aerospace Industries Association (AIA)

·         2019 Facts & Figures

Air Power Development Centre

·         Challenges to the Suppression of Enemy Air Defences

Al Jazeera Center for Studies

·         Trump-Rouhani-Europe: The Cold Season of Diplomacy

American Enterprise Institute

·         Political Report: Polls on the Economy, Sexual Harassment, and Campaign Finance

Amnesty International

·         "I Don’t Know What My Future Will Be": Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh

·         Outsourcing Responsibility: Human Rights Policies in the Defence Sector

Army University Press

·         Military Review, September-October 2019, v. 99, no. 5

o    Reinvigorating the Army’s Approach to Command and Control: Training for Mission Command (Part III)

o    Three Perspectives on Consolidating Gains

o    Extract from “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2019”

o    Competing with China for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific

o    Contemporary China: In Conflict, Not Competition

o    Extract from “China’s Impact on the U.S. Education System” Staff Report

o    A Chinese Fox against an American Hedgehog in Cyberspace?

o    Identifying Windows of Opportunity within China’s Rise: Problematizing China’s Hundred-Year Strategy toward Great-Power Status

o    Extract from “The FBI and the National Security Threat Landscape”

o    Pivot Out of the Pacific: Oil and the Creation of a Chinese Empire in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries

o    China’s One Belt, One Road Initiative and Its International Arms Sales: An Overlooked Aspect of Connectivity and Cooperation?

o    Précis: Unrestricted Warfare

o    Young Army Movement: Winning the Hearts and Minds of Russian Youth

o    Potential for Army Integration of Autonomous Systems by Warfighting Function

o    Do Large-Scale Combat Operations Require a New Type of Leader?

o    Don’t Get Wounded: Military Health System Consolidation and the Risk to Readiness

o    War on Russia?: From Putin and Ukraine to Trump and Russiagate

o    Remembering 9/11

Atlantic Council

·         Alternate Cybersecurity Futures

Australian National University – Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs

·         How Does the ‘Pacific’ Fit into the ‘Indo-Pacific’? The Changing Geopolitics of the Pacific Islands: Workshop Report

Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)

·         Australia-Afghanistan Relations: Reflections on a Half-Century

·         Tweeting Through the Great Firewall: Preliminary Analysis of PRC-linked Information Operations on the Hong Kong Protests

Baker Institute for Public Policy

·         Dodd-Frank: Costs of Compliance

·         Nord Stream 2: Energy Security For Europe Or Prelude To Russian Aggression In The Baltic?

Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA)

·         The Danger of Israeli Public Apathy Regarding Palestinian Construction in Area C

·         The EU Is Battling Israel in Area C

·         Hezbollah’s Demographic Problem Explains Its Restraint

·         How Sincere Is the Turkey-Iran Friendship?

·         Israel Must Remain Vigilant in Its Relations with Poland

·         Israel’s New Existential Challenge

·         Muhammad Dahlan and the Deal of the Century

·         The Mysterious Explosion of a Russian Nuclear Missile Engine

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

·         Attacking Artificial Intelligence: AI’s Security Vulnerability and What Policymakers Can Do About It

·         Building a 21st Century Congress: Improving Congress’s Science and Technology Expertise

Beyond the Parallel

·         Undeclared North Korea: The Kumchon-ni Missile Operating Base

Brookings Institute

·         Inflation Dynamics: Dead, Dormant, or Determined Abroad?

·         The Optimal Inflation Target and the Natural Rate of Interest

·         Revisiting the Federal Budget Outlook

·         Why 5G Requires New Approaches to Cybersecurity

Brown University Watson Institute

·         The Costs of War in Somalia

Bruegel

·         Braver, Greener, Fairer: Memos to the EU Leadership 2019-2024

Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)

·         The Western Alliance in the Face of the Russian (Dis)information Machine: Where Does Canada Stand?

·         What Diplomats Need to Know about Canadian Elections

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

·         The Dawn of India’s Fourth Party System

·         Ennahda’s Uneasy Exit From Political Islam

·         Moving the Encryption Policy Conversation Forward

CATO Institute

·         The 2019 Arms Sales Risk Index

·         Does Price Regulation Affect Competition?: Evidence from Credit Card Solicitations

Center for Data Innovation

·         Who Is Winning the AI Race: China, the EU or the United States?

Center for Global Development

·         Building an EU-Africa Partnership of Equals: A Roadmap for the New European Leadership

Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS)

·         Homeland Security Affairs Journal, v. 15, 2019

o    Capability Gaps Threatening CBP’s Present and Future Operations

o    How to Learn About Homeland Security

Center for International Governance Innovation

·         The Belt and Road Initiative: Motivations, Financing, Expansion and Challenges of Xi's Ever-expanding Strategy

Center for Security Policy

·         Is Islam Arab Imperialism?

Center for Security Studies (CSS)

·         European Strategic Autonomy and the US

·         Kazakhstan: A Centrepiece in China’s Belt and Road

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

·         Afghanistan: A War in Crisis

·         Are Sanctions Working in Venezuela?

·         China and the United States: Cooperation, Competition, and/or Conflict

·         The Era of the Gas Mega-Players

·         Emerging Technologies and Managing the Risk of Tech Transfer to China

·         Engaging with India’s Electrification Agenda: Powering Assam

·         Human Rights in a Shifting Landscape: Recommendations for Congress

·         Putin and Global Health: Friend or Foe?

·         The Return of ISIS in Iraq, Syria, and the Middle East

·         Threading the Needle: Balancing Conservation and Security in the High Seas Treaty

·         Understanding DoD’s Defense-Wide Zero-Based Review

·         Who's Claiming What?

Chatham House

·         Between Order and Chaos: A New Approach to Stalled State Transformations in Iraq and Yemen

·         The Future of EU–US Cooperation in Space Traffic Management and Space Situational Awareness

Chicago Council on Global Affairs

·         Americans Favor US-China Trade, Split Over Tariffs

·         Rejecting Retreat: Americans Support US Engagement in Global Affairs

Combating Terrorism Center (CTC)

·         CTC Sentinel, September 2019, v.12, no. 8  

o    Eighteen Years On: The War on Terror Comes of Age

o    A View from the CT Foxhole: Joseph Maguire, Acting Director of National Intelligence

o    Taking Aim: Islamic State Khorasan’s Leadership Losses

o    Relatives, Redemption, and Rice: Motivations for Joining the Maute Group

o    The Development of Tunisia’s Domestic Counter-Terrorism Finance Capability

Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

·         Accounting for Federal Retirement and Veterans' Benefits: Cash and Accrual Measures

·         An Evaluation of CBO’s Past Deficit and Debt Projections

Dahrendorf Forum

·         Known Unknowns: EU Foreign, Security, and Defence Policy after Brexit

Department of Defense (DOD) 

·         DODI 2310.09 - Behavioral Science Support (BSS) for Detainee Operations and Intelligence Interrogations

·         Hurricane Dorian Response

·         Military Construction Necessary to Support the Use of the Armed Forces in Addressing the National Emergency at the Southern Border

Department of Health & Human Services (DHHS) 

·         A-12-19-20001 - Unaccompanied Alien Children Care Provider Facilities Generally Conducted Required Background Checks but Faced Challenges in Hiring, Screening, and Retaining Employees

·         OEI-09-18-00431 - Care Provider Facilities Described Challenges Addressing Mental Health Needs of Children in HHS Custody

Department of Homeland Security (DHS)

·         Termination of the Presidential Advisory Commission on Election Integrity

Department of Homeland Security Inspector General

·         OIG-19-58 FEMA's Longstanding IT Deficiencies Hindered 2017 Response and Recovery Operations

Department of State

·         Draft U.S. Government Guidance for the Export of Surveillance Technology

·         ESP-19-06 Evaluation of the Antiterrorism Assistance Explosive Detection Canine Program – Health and Welfare

East-West Center

·         Learning from Success in Climate-Informed Decision-Making: Case Studies Across Three U.S. Regions

·         Now I Know My ABCs: U.S.-China Policy on AI, Big Data, and Cloud Computing

Egmont Institute

·         The Power to Engage: Giving Punch to a New EU Global Strategy 2020

European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)

·         Give the People What They Want: Popular Demand for a Strong European Foreign Policy

European Union Institute for Security Studies

·         The EU and NATO: The Essential Partners

Europol

·         3rd Conference of the European Counter Terrorism Centre (ECTC)Advisory Network

·         What’s on the Terrorists’ Bookshelves?

·         A Review of Transatlantic Best Practices for Countering Radicalisation in Prisons and Terrorist Recidivism

·         The History and Influence of the Belgian ISIS Contingent

·         Assessing the Islamic State in Libya

·         Islamic State Group’s Experiments with the Decentralised Web

Finnish Institute of International Affairs

·         Strategic Deterrence Redux: Nuclear Weapons and European Security

French Institute of International Relations

·         China’s Quest for Gas Supply Security: The Global Implications

·         China’s Quest for Blue Skies: The Astonishing Transformation of the Domestic Gas Market

Future Directions International

·         China’s Dire Straits: No Brothers in Arms – Part Two

German Marshall Fund of the United States

·         AI Startups and the Fight Against Online Disinformation

·         Shaping Inclusive Governance in Cyberspace

Global Commission on Adaptation

·         Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Climate Resilience

Globsec

·         European Jihad: Future of the Past?  From Criminals to Terrorists and Back?

Government Accountability Office (GAO)

·         Aviation Safety: Opportunities Exist for FAA to Improve Airport Terminal Area Safety Efforts GAO-19-639

·         Conventional Arms Transfer Policy: Agency Processes for Reviewing Direct Commercial Sales and Foreign Military Sales Align with Policy Criteria  GAO-19-673R

·         Defense Management: Observations on DOD's Business Reform Efforts and Plan GAO-19-666

·         Defense Workforce: Steps Needed to Identify Acquisition Training Needs for Non-Acquisition Personnel GAO-19-556

·         Defense Supplier Base: Challenges and Policy Considerations Regarding Offshoring and Foreign Investment Risks GAO-19-516

·         Department of Homeland Security: Review of Report on Agency Estimates of Foreign Nationals Unlawfully Residing in the U.S. GAO-19-640R

·         Disaster Response: Federal Assistance and Selected States and Territory Efforts to Identify Deaths from 2017 Hurricanes GAO-19-486

·         Foreign Assistance: State Department Should Take Steps to Improve Timeliness of Required Budgetary Reporting GAO-19-600

·         Guided Missile Frigate: Navy Has Taken Steps to Reduce Acquisition Risk, but Opportunities Exist to Improve Knowledge for Decision Makers [Reissued with revisions on Sept. 5, 2019.] GAO-19-512

·         Information Technology: DOD Needs to Fully Implement Program for Piloting Open Source Software GAO-19-457

·         Nuclear Waste Cleanup: DOE Faces Project Management and Disposal Challenges with High-Level Waste at Idaho National Laboratory GAO-19-494

·         Prescription Opioids: Patient Options for Safe and Effective Disposal of Unused Opioids GAO-19-650

·         Public Service Loan Forgiveness: Improving the Temporary Expanded Process Could Help Reduce Borrower Confusion GAO-19-595

·         Surface Transportation: DHS Is Developing and Testing Security Technologies, but Could Better Share Test Results GAO-19-636

·         U.S. Assistance to Mexico: State and USAID Allocated over $700 Million to Support Criminal Justice, Border Security, and Related Efforts from Fiscal Year 2014 through 2018 GAO-19-647

·         USAID Reform: Efforts Address Most Key Practices but Could Improve in Performance Assessment and Strategic Workforce Planning GAO-19-60

Hoover Institution

·         Strategika, no. 60, The Monroe Doctrine and Current U.S. Foreign Policy

Human Rights Watch

·         Military Detention of Children for Suspected Boko Haram Involvement in Northeast Nigeria

·         Subject to Whim: The Treatment of Unaccompanied Migrant Children in the French Hautes-Alpes

·         Systemic Discrimination Against Transgender Women in Lebanon

·         The Treatment of Unaccompanied Migrant Children in the French Hautes-Alpes

·         Workers’ Rights Under Threat in US Meat and Poultry Plants

Information Technology & Innovation Foundation (ITIF)

·         The Best and Worst Tech Policy Ideas From Each Presidential Candidate in September’s Primary Debate        

·         The Link Between Drug Prices and Research on the Next Generation of Cures

Institute for Critical Infrastructure Technology

·         D.C. Takes On Energy Sector Threats: A Summary of Recent Agency and Congressional Efforts

Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA)

·         Utility of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning in Cybersecurity

Institute for Science and International Security

·         New Estimates of Iran’s Breakout Capabilities at Declared Sites Using a New, Simple-to-Use Breakout Calculator

Institute for Security Studies

·         Great Zimbabwe: Alternative Prospects to 2040

Institute for the Study of War

·         Al Qaeda Pushes Unity Among Aligned Groups in Syria

·         The Balancing Challenge for Ukraine

·         Russia in Review: Military Exercises as Geopolitical Tools

International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT)

·         The Practitioner’s Guide to the Galaxy – A Comparison of Risk Assessment Tools for Violent Extremism

·         Siege: The Atomwaffen Division and Rising Far-Right Terrorism in the United States

·         Understanding Dutch Converts to Islam: On Turbulent Trajectories and (Non-) Involvement in Jihadist Movements

International Crisis Group

·         After Aden: Navigating Yemen’s New Political Landscape

·         Iraq: Evading the Gathering Storm

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

·         Credit Misallocation and Economic Growth in Vietnam

·         Financial Openness and Capital Inflows to Emerging Markets: In Search of Robust Evidence

·         A Guide to Sovereign Debt Data

·         The Inflexible Structure of Global Supply Chains

·         Macroeconomic and Financial Policies for Climate Change Mitigation: A Review of the Literature

·         Manufacturing Jobs and Inequality: Why is the U.S. Experience Different?

·         A Possible Approach to Fiscal Rules in Small Islands —Incorporating Natural Disasters and Climate Change

·         Reallocating Public Spending to Reduce Income Inequality: Can It Work?

Italian Institute for International Political Studies

·         Rebuilding Syria: The Middle East's Next Power Game?

James Martin  Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS)

·         WMD Capabilities Enabled by Additive Manufacturing

Jamestown Foundation

·         China Brief, September 6, 2019, v. 19, no. 16

o    Chinese Covert Social Media Propaganda and Disinformation Related to Hong Kong

o    Taiwan Public Opinion Polling Regarding Forced Unification with China

o    "Key Individuals Management" and the Roots of China's Anti-Muslim Surveillance System

o    Looking Beyond Commodities Exports: China Increases its Engagement with Brazil

o    Cognitive Domain Operations: The PLA's New Holistic Concept for Influence Operations

·         Terrorism Monitor, September 10, 2019, v. 17, no. 17

o    Islamic State Operations Room: Lebanon Prison Radicalization

o    Sri Lanka Struggles to Solve the Islamic State-Local Network Puzzle

o    Some Old, Some New: Grievances, Players, and Backers in the Conflict in Southern Yemen

Mitchell Institute

·         Restoring America's Military Competitiveness: Mosaic Warfare

National Bureau of Asian Research

·         Securing the Belt and Road Initiative: China's Evolving Military Engagement Along the Silk Roads

National Security Archive

·         Detection of the First Soviet Nuclear Test, September 1949

Observer Research Foundation

·         Israel’s Arms Sales to India: Bedrock of a Strategic Partnership

Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)

·         Are Foreign Companies Really Leaving China in Droves?

·         Chinese Investments in the US and EU Are Declining—for Similar Reasons

·         The Trade War Is Suddenly Getting Worse

Pew Research Center Internet & Technology

·         More Than Half of U.S. Adults Trust Law Enforcement to Use Facial Recognition Responsibly

Pew Research Center Social & Demographic Trends

·         The American Veteran Experience and the Post-9/11 Generation

RAND

·         Characterization of the Synthetic Opioid Threat Profile to Inform Inspection and Detection Solutions

·         Development of a Short Form Measure of Sexual Harassment Risk in the Military: Findings from the RAND Military Workplace Study

·         Force Planning Scenarios, 1945–2016: Their Origins and Use in Defense Strategic Planning

·         Hostile Social Manipulation: Present Realities and Emerging Trends

·         Law Enforcement Efforts to Fight the Opioid Crisis: Convening Police Leaders, Multidisciplinary Partners, and Researchers to Identify Promising Practices and to Inform a Research Agenda

·         Manpower Alternatives to Enhance Total Force Capabilities: Could New Forms of Reserve Service Help Alleviate Military Shortfalls?

·         Projecting Air Force Rated Officer Inventory Across the Total Force

·         The tanKer Aerial Refueling Model for Analysis (KARMA)

·         Three Essays on Minority and Immigrant Outcomes in a New Era of Immigration Enforcement: Evidence from Los Angeles

Small Wars Journal

·         Analyzing Toxic “Fake News”: Are Key Concepts Promulgated by Master Propagandists of the Past Still in Practice Today?

·         The Arab Coalition Must Put Aside Differences, Rethink Strategy on Yemen

·         Assessing the Goals of U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts in Somalia

·         An Assessment of Air Force Advising Concepts in Small Wars, “Paper Falcons”

·         The Cartel’s Colour

·         Exchanging Hats to Fix the Military Part 2: Artillery Army

·         General Jim Mattis: The Currents, Undercurrents and Crosscurrents of Chaos’ Re-Emergence

·         Great Power Competition and Relative Advantage: Lessons from Thucydides for U.S. Strategic Thinkers

·         Passing the Paramilitary Torch from the CIA to Special Operations Command

·         Sudan’s Mercenary Foreign Policy Repeats the Mistakes of the Past

·         Tactical Advising is Not the Problem: How to Get Security Force Training Right

·         Treading Softly: Winning the Peace in the Human Domain

·         Western COIN: The Rise of “Soft” Counterinsurgency Doctrine

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

·         Building Everyday Peace in Kirkuk, Iraq: The Potential of Locally Focused Interventions

Strategic Studies Institute

·         2018: The Return of Deterrence: Credibility and Capabilities in a New Era

Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC)

·         Recent Trends in Drug-Related Asset Forfeitures

UN Human Rights Council

·         Report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic

·         Yemen: Collective Failure, Collective Responsibility

US Air Force Space Command (AFSPC)

·         The Future of Space 2060 and Implications for U.S. Strategy:Report on the Space Futures Workshop 

US Department of Agriculture (USDA)

·         Household Food Security in the United States in 2018

US International Trade Commission (USITC)

·         Conducting Profitability Analysis in Partial Equilibrium Models with Monopolistic Competition

·         Do Strong Export Relationships Imply Economic Dependency?

·         Firm Level Analysis of Trade Restrictions in the Maritime Port Services Industry

·         Translog Partial Equilibrium Model of Trade Policy

Washington Institute for Near East Policy

·         The Campaign Between Wars: How Israel Rethought Its Strategy to Counter Iran’s Malign Regional Influence

·         The Challenges Facing the New Saudi Oil Minister

·         How Israel's Most Important Leaders Shaped Its Destiny

·         How Will Palestinians Respond to Netanyahu’s Annexation Announcement?

·         Iraq’s Air Defense Conundrum: Options for U.S. Policy

·         Muslim Thinkers to Face the Problematic New “Theology of the Jews”(Part 1)

·         On the Eve of Israel’s Do-Over: Final Maneuvers and Coalition Possibilities

·         Resurrection of Marginal Traditions: New Reinterpretation of Jewsin Early Islamic Texts (Part 2)

·         Shia Leadership After Sistani

·         Tunisians to Elect a New President

·         Yemen’s Fragile Military Balance

·         Younger Palestinians More Moderate on Tactical Issues, But Not on Long-Term Peace with Israel

White House

·         Modernizing Sanctions to Combat Terrorism

o    Executive Order

o    Factsheet

o    Presidential Message to the Congress

o    Statement from President Trump  

World Economic Forum

·         Generation AI Establishing Global Standards for Children and AI