Friday's Miscellany 06-01-2018

38 North 

·         Kim Yong Chol, A Biography

·         North Korea’s Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center; Possible Preparation for Reprocessing Campaign in Early May?

·         The Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site Destroyed: A Good Start but New Questions Raised about Irreversibility

Africa Center for Security Studies

·         AMISOM’s Hard-Earned Lessons in Somalia

·         Envisioning a Stable South Sudan

o    Three Trajectories Facing South Sudan

o    Context and the Limits of International Engagement in Realizing Durable Stability in South Sudan

o    Taming the Dominant Gun Class in South Sudan

o    Durable Stability in South Sudan: What Are the Prerequisites?

o    Security Sector Stabilization: A Prerequisite for Political Stability in South Sudan

o    Confronting the Challenges of South Sudan’s Security Sector: A Practitioner Perspective

o    Blurring the Lines: Ethnicity, Governance, and Stability in South Sudan

o    The Rule of Law and the Role of Customary Courts in Stabilizing South Sudan

o    Navigating the Competing Interests of Regional Actors in South Sudan

AidData

·         Listening to Leaders 2018: Is Development Cooperation Tuned-In or Tone-Deaf?

Air Force Research Institute (AFRI)

·         Strategic Studies Quarterly, Summer 2018, v. 12, no. 2

o    The 2018 National Defense Strategy:  Continuity and Competition

o    The Trump Nuclear Posture Review:  Three Issues, Nine Implications

o    Attribution and Operational Art:  Implications for Competing in Time

o    Beyond the Tweets:  President Trump’s Continuity in Military Operations

o    A New Security Framework for Geoengineering

o    Space Arms Control:  A Hybrid Approach

Air University

·         Air & Space Power Journal, Summer 2018, v. 32, no. 2

o    Space as a War-fighting Domain

o    The Coming Revolution in Military Space Professionalism

o    Improving How the Air Force Develops High-Potential Officers

o    Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles and Their Role in Future Nuclear Forces

o    Using Auxiliary Forces to Accomplish Strategic Objectives

o    Strategic Foresight Methods in the Public and Private Sectors

o    Cyber War and Deterrence Applying a General Theoretical Framework

o    Persistent Space Situation Awareness for the Guardians of the High Frontier

Al Jazeera Center for Studies

·         A Lost Love Between the Horn of Africa and UAE

American Enterprise Institute

·         AEI Political Report: Election 2018 Preview

·         “The Humble Members of Society”: Understanding Populism in the United States

·         Millennials, Religion, and Politics in the United States

Amnesty International

·         Mexico: Reformed Laws, Unchanged Reality

·         Shoot to Kill: Nicaragua’s Strategy to Repress Protest

Atlantic Council

·         Supply Chain in the Software Era

Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)

·         Deterrence in Cyberspace: Spare the Costs, Spoil the Bad State Actor; Deterrence in Cyberspace Requires Consequences

·         Weibo Diplomacy and Censorship in China

Baker Institute for Public Policy

·         Behind the PJD's Durability

·         How the PJD Sets Itself Apart

·         In Morocco, Pragmatism & Political Survival

·         Morocco's Vanguard of Democracy?

Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies

·         The Danger to Jordan of a Palestinian State

·         The Israel Defense Forces, 1948-2017

·         Summing Up the “March of Return”

·         Trump, Europe, and Iran

·         Trump’s Recognition of Jerusalem Has Not Led to an Uptick in Violence

·         Turkey’s Tactical Bear Hug with Russia

·         The Unknown Richard Pipes

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

·         Debtbook Diplomacy: China’s Strategic Leveraging of its Newfound Economic Influence and the Consequences for U.S. Foreign Policy

Brennan Center for Justice

·         Securing the Nation’s Voting Machines: A Toolkit for Advocates and Election Officials

Brookings

·         No, Dodd-Frank was Neither Repealed nor Gutted. Here’s What Really Happened

Bruegel

·         The Changing Fortunes of Central Banking

Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI) 

·         Canada and the Shifting International Energy Order: Superpower, Climate Leader or Land of Myth?

·         Modernizing the Military Personnel System: Lessons from the Force of the Future

·         A Primer to the G7 Summit in Charlevoix June 8-9, 2018

Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS)

·         Rethinking Security: China and the Age of Strategic Rivalry

CATO Institute

·         Give Me 3’: Do Minimum Distance Passing Laws Reduce Bicyclist Fatalities?

Center for a New American Security (CNAS)

·         The Bottom Line: Analysis of the 2019 Defense Budget Request

·         Technology Roulette: Managing Loss of Control as Many Militaries Pursue Technological Superiority

Center for Global Development

·         Migration Is What You Make It: Seven Policy Decisions that Turned Challenges into Opportunities

·         Rethinking the Humanitarian Business Model

·         Three Decades of Poverty Mobility in Nigeria: The Trapped, the Freed, and the Never Trapped

Center for International Security and Cooperation

·         A Technically-informed Roadmap for North Korea’s Denuclearization

Center for Security Policy

·         Russian Strategy and Europe's Refugee Crisis

Center for Security Studies (CSS)

·         Preventing Violent Extremism in Tunisia

Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA)

·         Countering Comprehensive Coercion: Competitive Strategies Against Authoritarian Political Warfare

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

·         Afghan Narcotics: 2000-2018: From Control and Elimination Efforts to a Drug Economy and Bombings Labs

·         Confronting the Global Forced Migration Crisis

·         The Iraqi Election: The Need for a New U.S. Strategy

·         Issues & Insights v. 18, CR4 - Re-Examining Preventive Diplomacy in Southeast Asia

·         PacNet #37 - North Korea: Can Hope Triumph over Experience?

·         PacNet #36 - Balikatan Exercises 2018: Philippines-US Security Cooperation Forging Ahead

·         Religion and Violence in Russia

Center for the Study of the Drone

·         Public Safety Drones: An Update

Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction

·         Iran's Strategic Culture: Implications for Nuclear Policy

Center on Global Energy Policy

·         New Realities, New Risks: Rethinking the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

·         The United States Can Still Take the Lead in Clean Energy Investment

Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies

·         The Rising Drone Power: Turkey On The Eve Of Its Military Breakthrough

Centre for European Reform (CER)

·         CER Bulletin, no. 120 - June/July 2018

o    On Brexit, TTIP and the City of London

o    Trump and Europe: Atlantic Hurricane Season?

o    Can EU-UK Defence Negotiations be Positive-sum?

Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)

·         Automation and the Future of Work: Scenarios and Policy Options

Clingendael - Netherlands Institute of International Relations

·         Global Security Pulse: Migration & Security

·         Making Cities in Conflict Areas More Resilient

Columbia Law School Human Rights Clinic

·         Out of the Shadows: Recommendations to Advance Transparency in the Use of Lethal Force

Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

·         An Analysis of the President’s 2019 Budget

·         Federal Mandatory Spending for Means-Tested Programs, 2008 to 2028

Council of Economic Advisors (CEA)

·         Returns on Investments in Recidivism-reducing Programs

Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)

·         Business and Peacebuilding: Seven Ways to Maximize Positive Impact

Department of Commerce & Department of Homeland Security 

·         Enhancing the Resilience of the Internet and Communications Ecosystem Against Botnets and Other Automated, Distributed Threats

·         A Report to the President on Supporting the Growth and Sustainment of the Nation's Cybersecurity Workforce: Building the Foundation for a More Secure American Future

Department of Defense (DOD)

·         Pacific Command Change Highlights Growing Importance of Indian Ocean Area

·         Map

Department of Defense Inspector General (DODIG)

·         D2018-D00SPO-0156.000 Evaluation of the DoD's Management of Opioid Use Disorder within the DoD

Department of Energy (DOE)

·         Prevent, Counter, and Respond: A Strategic Plan to Reduce Global Nuclear Threats

Department of State

·         International Religious Freedom Report for 2017

·         Recommendations to the President on Deterring Adversaries and Better Protecting the American People from Cyber Threats

·         Recommendations to the President on Protecting American Cyber Interests through International Engagement

Department of the Navy

·         Department of the Navy Strategic Roadmap for Unmanned Systems (Short Version) 

Department of Veterans Affairs

·         Joint Action Plan for Supporting Veterans During Their Transition from Uniformed Service to Civilian Life

Economic Research Forum (ERF)

·         Capital Raising Activity and Firm Growth in the Arab Region

·         Does Precarious Employment Damage Youth Mental Health, Wellbeing,and Marriage? Evidence from Egypt Using Longitudinal Data

·         Household Asset Wealth and Female Labor Supply in MENA

·         Labor Market Policies and FDI Flows to GCC Countries

·         The Wellbeing of Syrian Refugees: Shifting from Humanitarian to Developmental Response in Jordan

·         The Wrecking Force of Inflation: How the Universal Cash Transfer in Iran Has Lost its Poverty Reduction Impact

European Institute of the Mediterranean

·         Preventing Violent Extremism in Lebanon: Experience from a Danish-Lebanese Partnership

European Policy Centre

·         Agriculture in Europe: Greener Practices and a Brighter Future for the Sector

·         Armenia’s “Velvet Revolution”: Time is Pashinyan’s Worst Enemy

Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)

·         President Trump’s Iran Sanctions Gamble: Divergence across the Atlantic

Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)

·         Don’t Forget: North Korea is a Country, too

·         Six Heads are Better Than Two When It Comes to North Korea

Foundation for Defense of Democracy (FDD)

·         Erdogan’s Hostage Diplomacy: Western Nationals in Turkish Prisons

French Institute of International Relations (Institut Français des Relations Internationales)

·         Catching Up or Staying Ahead. Japanese Investment in Mekong Region and the China Factor

·         Five Theses on the "Refugee Crisis" in Germany

Future Directions International

·         Indonesian Perspectives: Economic and Security Relations with Australia

German Development Institute

·         Unfinished Business: An Appraisal of the Latest UNDS Reform Resolution

German Marshall Fund of the United States

·         France's Defense Partnerships and the Dilemmas of Brexit

·         The United States and EU Can Still Avoid Conflict Over Iran Sanctions

Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime

·         Battling Human Trafficking: How Far Have We Come and Where Do We Go From Here? A Scrutiny of Private Sector Obligations under the Modern Slavery Act

Government Accountability Office (GAO)

·         GAO-18-223 Climate Change: Analysis of Reported Federal Funding

·         GAO-18-324 Missile Defense: The Warfighter and Decision Makers Would Benefit from Better Communication about the System's Capabilities and Limitations

·         GAO-18-366 Federal Disaster Assistance: Individual Assistance Requests Often Granted but FEMA Could Better Document Factors Considered

·         GAO-18-379 Emergency Communications: Increased Regional Collaboration Could Enhance Capabilities

·         GAO-18-380 VA Health Care: Progress Made Towards Improving Opioid Safety, but Further Efforts to Assess Progress and Reduce Risk Are Needed

·         GAO-18-417 DOD Personnel: Further Actions Needed to Strengthen Oversight and Coordination of Defense Laboratories' Hiring Efforts

·         GAO-18-419 2016 Presidential Campaign: Actions Needed to Address U.S. Secret Service Overpayments for Travel Costs

·         GAO-18-449 Counterterrorism: DOD Should Fully Address Security Assistance Planning Elements in Global Train and Equip Project Proposals

·         GAO-18-456 B61-12 Nuclear Bomb: Cost Estimate for Life Extension Incorporated Best Practices, and Steps Being Taken to Manage Remaining Program Risks

·         GAO-18-461 Interstate Pipeline Inspections: Additional Planning Could Help DOT Determine Appropriate Level of State Participation

·         GAO-18-585T Prescription Opioids: Medicare Needs Better Information to Reduce the Risk of Harm to Beneficiaries [testimony]

Harvard Law School

·         National Security Journal, 2018, v. 9, no. 2

o    Managing National Security Risk in an Open Economy: Reforming the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States      

Hoover Institution

·         Douglass C. North: Transaction Costs, Property Rights, and Economic Outcomes

·         Federal Lands, Opportunity Costs, and the Administrate State

·         Property Rights to Frontier Land and Minerals: US Exceptionalism

Hudson Institute

·         Are Gulf State Airlines Taking Unfair Advantage of Open Skies Agreements?

·         How Al-Qaeda Works: The Jihadist Group’s Evolving Organizational Design

Human Rights Watch

·         Bankrolling Abuse: Israeli Banks in West Bank Settlements

·         You Say You Want a Lawyer? Tunisia’s New Law on Detention, on Paper and in Practice

Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA)

·         Analysis of Non-Acute, Sub-Lethal Chemical/Biological Injuries and Illnesses

·         Research Highlight—Force Oriented Cost Information System (FOCIS) Helps Nations Improve Management of Their Defense Sectors

Institute for National Security Studies (INSS - Israel)

·         Cyber, Intelligence, and Security, May 2018, v. 2, no. 1

o    When Less is More: Cognition and the Outcome of Cyber Coercion

o    Developing Organizational Capabilities to Manage Cyber Crises

o    Turkey—Challenges to the Struggle against Cyber Threats

o    Germany’s Cyber Strategy—Government and Military Preparations for Facing Cyber Threats

o    The Cybersphere Obligates and Facilitates a Revolution in Intelligence Affairs

o    Developing a Doctrine for Cyberwarfare in the Conventional Campaign

o    Cyber Intelligence: In Pursuit of a Better Understanding for an Emerging Practice

o    The United States Withdraws from the Nuclear Deal with Iran: Lessons from a Simulation http://www.inss.org.il/publication/united-states-withdraws-nuclear-deal-iran-lessons-simulation/

Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC)

·         The 2018 Local Elections in Papua: Places and Issues to Watch

Institute for Science and International Security

·         Pakistan’s Growing Uranium Enrichment Program

·         Technical Note on a Timeline for North Korean Denuclearization

Institute for Security & Development Policy (ISDP)

·         Made in China 2025

Institute for Security Studies

·         Peace and Security Council Report, no. 102

Institute for Strategic, Political, Security and Economic Consultancy (ISPSW)

·         Geopolitical Trends in the South Pacific: Is the US or China Winning?  

·         Narco Economy in Myanmar: From Opiates to ATS

Institute for the Study of War

·         Syria Situation Report: May 2-29, 2018

Institute of Development Studies (IDS)

·         Representation and Inclusion in School Councils in Mozambique

Institute of International Affairs (Istituto Affari Internazionali)

·         Bringing Social Justice and Human Rights Back In

·         Winning Back the “Left Behind”: Iran’s New Nationalist Agenda

Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS)

·         Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018: An Unlikely Alliance forms the Government

·         Nepal in 2018: The Post-Conflict Situation and the State of Reconstruction

·         Pakistan Prepares for the Polls: A Caretaker Government Takes Charge

International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT)

·         An End to the War on Terrorism

·         Citizenship and Ancestry of Belgian Foreign Fighters

International Centre for the Study of Radicalization

·         Charlie Winter’s Address at the United Nations’ Open Meeting on Countering Terrorist Narratives

·         From Battlefield to Ballot Box: Contextualizing the Rise and Evolution of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units

International Crisis Group

·         Making the Best of France’s Libya Summit

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

·         Does Financial Tranquility Call for Stringent Regulation?

Jamestown Foundation

·         China Brief, v. 18, no. 9, May 31, 2018

o    Amid Taiwan Tensions, Airline Spat Shows Sino-U.S. Failure to Communicate

o    The Many Sides of Tentative Sino-Japanese Rapprochement

o    Chinese-Russian Defense and Security Ties: Countering US Encirclement

o    Why India Won’t Play Its ‘Tibet Card’

o    China’s Evolving Naval Force Structure: Beyond Sino-U.S. Rivalry

·         Terrorism Monitor, June 2, 2017, v. 16, no. 11

o    Taliban Demonstrates Resilience With Afghan Spring  Offensive

o    India’s Ceasefire in Kashmir Raises Prospect of Talks

o    Dangerous Amateurs: Indonesia’s New Generation of Jihadists

Migration Policy Institute (MPI)

·         A Guide to Finding and Understanding English Learner Data

MITRE

·         Assessment of Operational Energy System Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities

·         Quenching the Thirst for Human-Machine Teaming Guidance: Helping Military Systems Acquisition Leverage Cognitive Engineering Research

NATO Defense College

·         Modernized Deterrence and Revitalized Dialogue: Adapting the Harmel Report to post-2014 Europe

NATO Parliamentary Assembly

·         Countering Russia's Hybrid Threats: An Update

Naval War College

·         Naval War College Review, Summer 2018, v. 71, no. 3 

o    Into the Abyss?: European Naval Power in the Post–Cold War Era

o    Japan’s Defense Readiness: Prospects and Issues in Operationalizing Air and Maritime Supremacy

o    Lifting the Fog of Targeting: “Autonomous Weapons” and Human Control through the Lens of Military Targeting

o    The Role of the Human Operator in the Third Offset Strategy

o    Charting a New Course: The Knox-Pye-King Board and Naval Professional Education, 1919–23

o    Review Essay: In Pursuit of a Disappearing Paradigm

o    Reflections on Reading

·         Totalitarian Insurgency: Evaluating the Islamic State’s In-Theater Propaganda Operations 

New America Foundation

·         Cybersecurity for the States: Lessons from Across America

Oxford Research Group

·         Lawful by Awful? Legal and Political Challenges of Remote Warfare and Working with Partners

·         ORG Explains #4: The UK and UN Peacekeeping

·         Pacifism or Pragmatism? The 2013 Parliamentary Vote on Military Action in Syria

Peace Research Institute of Frankfurt (PRIF/HSFK)

·         Coercion and Peace

Pew Research Center Internet & Technology

·         Teens, Social Media & Technology 2018

Pew Research Center Religion &  Public Life

·         Being Christian in Western Europe

Policy Exchange

·         Smart State: Redesigning Government in the Era of Intelligent Services

Polish Institute of International Affairs

·         France’s Positions in the MFF 2021–2027 Negotiations

Rand

·         The Korean Peninsula: Three Dangerous Scenarios

Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF)

·         Intellectual Underpinnings of Air Power

Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

·         The Home Front: The Future Accommodation Model for the UK Armed Forces: Obligations and Choices for Service Personnel and Families

Small Arms Survey

·         Lifting U.S. Sanctions on Sudan

Small Wars Journal

·         Gangs and the Military Note 2: Military-trained Gang Members as Criminal Insurgents

·         Good Vibrations

·         Information Warfare: An Attack on Democracy

·         Large-Scale Combat Operations: Risk and Adaptability at the Corps and Division Levels

·         Macro-corruption and the Lava-Jato Case: A Criminal Networks Analysis

·         Retreat and Rebuild? ISIS as a Virtual Caliphate

·         Securing the Bridge from the Other End: Tactical Rule of Law in Non-Western Countries

·         Surrounded, Yet Unaware: Achieving Isolation in Future Urban Terrain

·         Welcome to Bizarrotan: Combined Operations in the Bizarro World

South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)

·         African Democracy Charter at 11: Averting Democratic Deconsolidation

Spearhead Research

·         Iraq’s elections : Why Muqatada al-Sadr’s Win Heralds a New Era for Baghdad

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

·         Global Mapping and Analysis of Anti-vehicle Mine Incidents in 2017

·         Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2017

·         World Military Spending in 2017 was $1.74 Trillion [visual]

Strategy Bridge

·         Israel’s Nuclear Strategy: Enhancing Deterrence in the New Cold War (Part I)

·         Thucydides in the Data Warfare Era

Transnational Institute (TNI)

·         The 9th Asian Informal Drug Policy Dialogue

US Central Command (CENTCOM)

·         Unipath, 2018, v. 8, no. 2

o    Egypt's Bright Star

o    Training for Victory

o    Commanding the Commandos

o    Cooperative Training

o    Strengthening Regional Marine Forces

o    Yemen's Fight Against Terrorism

o    Cooperation on the Seas

o    Defending Northern Egypt

o    Securing Water

o    Averting Disaster

o    Training Against Terrorists

o    Senior Leader Profile

US Institute of Peace (USIP)

·         Sudan after Sanctions: Sudanese Views of Relations with the United States

Visual Capitalist

·         Mapped: The Countries With the Most Foreign Currency Reserves

Washington Institute for Near East Policy

·         The Crumbling Israeli Left-Wing and Netanyahu’s Power

·         Framing Yemen Peace Negotiations

·         North Korea in the Middle East: A Dangerous Military Supply Line

·         Numbers Versus Narratives in Israel-Palestine

·         Religion and the Israel-Palestinian Conflict: Cause, Consequence,and Cure

·         Sanctions on Turkey: Reconciling Washington’s Diverging Views

·         Treasury Increases the Pressure on Iranian Airlines

·         Washington Should Recognize the Russian Strategic Achievement in Syria

White House

·         Federal Cybersecurity Risk Determination Report and Action Plan

·         Summary of the 2018 White House Summit on Artificial Intelligence for American Industry

Wilson Center

·         Questioning Our Assumptions: Survivorship Bias and Predictions of Arab Gulf Stability

World Bank

·         Impact Evaluation in Practice 2nd ed

·         Mitigating Drought Impacts in Drylands: Quantifying the Potential for Strengthening Crop- and Livestock-Based Livelihoods

·         Strengthening Argentina's Integration into the Global Economy :Policy Proposals for Trade, Investment, and Competition