Friday's Miscellany 12-01-2017

38 North

·         The Folly of Deploying US Tactical Nuclear Weapons to South Korea

·         The New Hwasong-15 ICBM: A Significant Improvement That May be Ready as Early as 2018

·         North Korea’s Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile Program Advances:Second Missile Test Stand Barge Almost Operational

·         North Korea’s Third ICBM Launch

Africa Center for Strategic Studies

·         Five Issues to Watch as Zimbabwe’s Transition Unfolds

·         Interdiction Efforts Adapt as Drug Trafficking in Africa Modernizes

·         Solidarity in Peace and Security: The Nordic-African Partnership

AidData

·         Decoding Data Use: How Do Leaders Source Data and Use It to Accelerate Development?

Air Force Research Institute (AFRI)

·         Strategic Studies Quarterly, Winter 2017, v. 11, no. 4

o    On US Nuclear Deterrence

o    Highlighting Artificial Intelligence:  An Interview with Paul Scharre

o    China’s Institutional Challenges to the International Order 

o    Commanding the Trend:  Social Media as Information Warfare 

o    Overcoming the Cyber Weapons Paradox 

o    Fighter Jets, Supercars, and Complex Technology  

o    Rethinking the US Nuclear Triad  

Air University

·         Air & Space Power Journal, Winter 2017, v. 31, no. 4

o    Improving Outcomes: Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Assessment

o    Lethal Autonomy: What It Tells Us about Modern Warfare

o    Global Command and Control for the Future Operating Concept: Implications for Structural Design and Information Flow

o    Airpower and the Expeditionary Trinity: Emerging Threats, Emerging Locations, and Emerging Capabilities

o    Operationalizing Air Force Critical Thinking

o    Innovation in a Bipolar Air Force

o    The Air Force's Misconception of Integrated Air and Missile Defense

o    Deterring Aggressive Space Actions with Cube Satellite Proximity Operations: A New Frontier in Defensive Space Control

American Enterprise Institute

·         Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act Section 702: Mend It, Don’t End It

·         2017:  Hot Topics in a Frigid Political Climate

·         Recommendations for a Future National Defense Strategy

Amnesty International

·         Colombia: The Peace Agreement and Guarantees of Non-Repetition in Chocó

·         Nigeria: A Criminal Enterprise? Shell’s Involvement in Human Rights Violations in Nigeria in the 1990s

·         'No Safe Place': Salvadorans, Guatemalans and Hondurans Seeking Asylum in Mexico Based on Their Sexual Orientation and/or Gender Identity

Army War College

·         Parameters, Autumn 2017, no. 47, no. 3

o    Limits of Negative Peace, Faces of Positive Peace

o    Abandoning Counterinsurgency: Reviving Antiterrorism Strategy

o    Insurgent Defectors in Counterinsurgencies

o    Rethinking NATO Policy on the Protection of Civilians

o    Military Force and Mass Migration in Europe

o    Casualties of Their Own Success: The 2011 Urination Incident in Afghanistan 

o    Third-Force Influences: Hollywood's War Films

o    Expanding Brigade Combat Teams: Is the Training Base Adequate?

o    Rapid Expansion and the Army's Matériel: Is There Enough?

Atlantic Council

·         Balkans Forward: A New US Strategy for the Region

·         Forging a New Era in U.S.-South African Relations

·         Northeast Asian Futures

·         Western Options in a Multipolar World

Baker Institute for Public Policy

·         NAFTA Talks: The Likely Outcome

Barcelona Centre for International Affairs

·         The Global Reality of Refugees in Protracted Situations: African Case Studies and Ways Ahead

·         “Le Temps des Cerises” in Rif: Analysis of a Year of Protests in Northern Morocco

·         War in Peacetime. Russia’s Strategy on NATO’s Eastern and Southern Flanks

Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies

·         AfD: A New Hurdle in the German-Israeli Relationship?

·         The Battle for Control of Brussels’ Grand Mosque

·         Economic Aspects of President Trump’s Visit to Asia

·         Free-Riding Allies are Painful. Free-Riding Enemies are Sheer Folly

·         Hezbollah and the Yemeni Missiles

·         Hezbollah’s Firm Grip on Lebanon Fuels Region’s Sectarian Strife

·         Israel and NATO States Share Urban Warfare Insights

·         The Political Crisis in Lebanon: An Opportunity to Strengthen Israeli-Saudi Cooperation Against Iran

·         Saudi Arabia’s Lebanon Gamble Might Pay Off

·         Tensions Between the Israeli Government and Non-Orthodox American Jews Are Exaggerated

·         Victimized Again: The Jews of Arab States and the June 1967 War

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

·         The United Kingdom's Experience in Developing and Delivering Physical Protection Workshops

Bipartisan Policy Center

·         Power and Corruption in Erdogan’s Turkey: Context and Consequences

Brookings

·         Avoiding War: Containment, Competition, and Cooperation in U.S.-China Relations

·         Measuring the Loss of Life from the Senate’s Tax Cuts for Alcohol Producers

Bruegel

·         Beyond the Juncker and Schäuble Visions of Euro-Area Governance

·         Returns on Foreign Assets and Liabilities: Exorbitant Privileges and Stabilising Adjustments

Bureau of Justice (BJS)

·         Background Checks for Firearm Transfers, 2015 - Statistical Tables

Canadian Global Affairs Institute

·         Evaluating Canada as a Dependable Ally and Partner for the United States

·         The Internationalization of Canadian Science: Getting Back in the Game?  

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

·         Entanglement: Chinese and Russian Perspectives on Non-nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Risks

CATO Institute

·         Going to Pot? The Impact of Dispensary Closures on Crime

·         What to Do about the Emerging Threat of Censorship Creep on the Internet

Center for a New American Security (CNAS)

·         Battlefield Singularity: Artificial Intelligence, Military Revolution,and China’s Future Military Power

Center for Global Development

·         Working Itself Out of a Job: USAID and Smart Strategic Transitions

Center for Nonproliferation

·         North Korean Strategic Nuclear Threat  

·         US-Russian Dialogue on Strategic Stability Held 65 Meters Underground in Moscow Command and Control Bunker

Center for Security Policy

·         Free Speech Under Fire: The Red-Green Axis' Unrestricted Warfare in OSCE and Beyond

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

·         Energy and Development: Providing Access and Growth

·         Maritime Futures: The Arctic and the Bering Strait Region

·         PacNet #87 - North Korea: the Storm before the Calm?

Center for Strategic Research (SAM - Turkey)

·         Leading Peace Operations: Turkey’s Experience

Center on Global Energy Policy

·         Tight Oil Market Dynamics: Benchmarks, Breakeven Points, and Inelasticities

Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)

·         Brexit and Financial Services: Navigating through the Complexity of Exit Scenarios

·         Squaring the Circle: The Search for an Accommodation between the European Union and the United Kingdom

Chatham House

·         A New Study Reveals six Political ‘Tribes’ Across Europe with Different Views About the EU and Its Future. Where Do You Fit?

Chicago Council on Global Affairs

·         North Korea’s Activities in Southeast Asia and the Implications for the Region

Clingendael - Netherlands Institute of International Relations

·         Climate-Migration-Security: A Contested Relationship

·         Missile Technology Control Regime at 30

·         Strategic Autonomy and the European Defense Fund

·         Sustainable Migration Management in the Sahel

Combating Terrorism Center (CTC)

·         CTC Sentinel, November 2017, v. 10, no.10

o    A Legitimate Challenger? Assessing the Rivalry between al-Shabaab and the Islamic State in Somalia

o    Foreign Technology or Local Expertise? Al-Shabaab’s IED Capability

o    The Implications of Iran’s Expanding Shi`a Foreign Fighter Network

o    A View from the CT Foxhole: Dr. Angela Misra, Co-Founder, The Unity Initiative

o    Europe's True Southern Frontier: The General, the Jihadis, and the High-Stakes Contest for Libya's Fezzan Region

o    The Curse of Cain: Why Fratricidal Jihadis Fail to Learn from Their Mistakes

Committee on National Security Systems (CNSS)

·         CNSS Directive No. 510 Directive on the Use of Mobile Devices within Secure Spaces

Congress. House. Armed Services Committee

·         Amphibious Warfare Readiness & Training (Interoperability, Shortfalls, and the Way Ahead)

Congress. House. Energy & Commerce Committee

·         Algorithms: How Companies’ Decisions About Data and Content Impact Consumers

·         Identity Verification in a Post-Breach World

·         Latest Developments in Combating Online Sex Trafficking

·         Powering America: Examining the Role of Financial Trading in the Electricity Markets

Congress. House. Foreign Affairs Committee

·         A Global Update on Alzheimer’s Disease

·         The Latest Developments in Saudi Arabia and Lebanon

·         Securing Public Areas of Transportation Systems: Stakeholder Perspectives

Congress. House. Homeland Security Committee

·         World Wide Threats: Keeping America Secure in the New Age of Terror

Congress. House. Oversight & Government Reform Committee

·         Combating the Opioid Crisis

·         Cybersecurity of Voting Machines

·         Regulatory Reform Task Force Check-In Part III

Congress. House. Science, Space & Technology

·         The Future of WOTUS: Examining the Role of States

Congress. House. Transportation & Infrastructure Committee

·         Unmanned Aircraft Systems: Emerging Uses in a Changing National Airspace

Congress. Joint Committee on Taxation

·         Macroeconomic Analysis Of The "Tax Cut And Jobs Act" As Ordered Reported By The Senate Committee On Finance On November 16, 2017

Congress. Senate. Armed Services Committee

·         Testimony From Outside Experts on Recommendations for a Future National Defense Strategy

Congress. Senate. Judiciary Committee

·         S.1241: Modernizing AML Laws to Combat Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing

Congress. Senator James Lankford

·         Federal Fumbles: 100 Ways the Government Dropped the Ball, v. 3

Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

·         The Bipartisan Health Care Stabilization Act of 2017 and the Individual Mandate

·         Cost Estimate for Legislation to Provide for Reconciliation Pursuant to Title II of the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2018

·         Distributional Analysis of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, as Ordered Reported by the Senate Committee on Finance on November 16, 2017, Excluding the Effects of Eliminating the Individual

·         An Evaluation of CBO’s Past Outlay Projections

·         Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, November 2017

·         Mandate Penalty

·         Summary of the Deficit Effects of a Bill to Provide for Reconciliation Pursuant to Titles II and V of the Concurrent Resolution on the Budget for Fiscal Year 2018

Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

·         CFR Sovereign Risk Tracker

·         The Challenge From North Korea: Fostering Regional Security and Nonproliferation

·         Global Monetary Policy Tracker

Danish Institute for International Studies (Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier)

·         U.S. Trade Policy Under Trump

Deloitte Insights

·         Refining at Risk: Securing Downstream Assets from Cybersecurity Threats

Department of Defense (DOD)

·         DOD Policy on Cluster Munitions

Department of Homeland Security (DHS)

·         OIG-18-19 Review of CBP Information Technology System Outage of January 2, 2017 [redacted]

Department of the Navy (DoN)

·         Enclosure (1) Report on the Collision between USS LAKE CHAMPLAIN (CG57) and Fishing Vessel NAM YANG 502

East Asia Institute

·         Donald Trump’s Tour of Asia 2017: Evaluating the U.S. Asia Strategy

·         Moving Towards Better Governance in Myanmar

East West Center

·         China and the United States as Aid Donors: Past and Future Trajectories

Economic Research Forum (ERF)

·         Estimating Labor Demand Elasticities and Elasticities of Substitutionin Egyptian Manufacturing Sector: A Firm Level Static Analysis

·         What Drive Regional Economic Inequalities in Tunisia? Evidence From Unconditional Quantile Decomposition Analysis

·         Women in the Tunisian Labor Market

Egmont Institute

·         A World in Flux

European Centre for International Political Economy

·         Restrictions to Cross-Border Data Flows: A Taxonomy

European Parliament

·         Facing Russia’s Strategic Challenge: Security Developments from the Baltic to the Black Sea

European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS)

·         Operation Sophia's World – Changes and Challenges

·         Towards a ‘Military Schengen’?

Europol

·         Drugs and the Darknet: Perspectives for Enforcement, Research and Policy

FAA Center for Excellence for UAS Research

·         UAS Ground Collision Severity Evaluation

Financial Action Task Force (FATF)

·         Andorra's Measures to Combat Money Laundering and the Financing of Terrorism and Proliferation

Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)

·         Facing New Realities: A Case for Enhanced Finnish Understanding of Nuclear Issues

Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)

·         A Century-Old Crime Against Humanity

·         Israeli Legitimacy and Partition

·         New Geopolitics in the Middle East?

·         Nuclear Weapons And Russian-North Korean Relations

·         Russia and Crisis Management on the Korean Peninsula

German Institute for International and Security Affairs (GIISA)

·         Movement on the Silk Road

·         Red Sea: Connecter and Divider : Disruption Waves from the Arabian Gulf to the Horn of Africa

German Marshall Fund of the United States

·         Drawing Red Lines in Gray Areas: Deterring Russia’s Challenge to Transatlantic Security Today

·         Turkey’s Strategic Choice: Flexible Alliances with an Enduring Transatlantic Anchor

George Washington University’s Program on Extremism

·         Islamic State’s Re-organization in Libya and Potential Connections with Illegal Trafficking

·         Radicalization and the Uzbek Diaspora in the Wake of the NYC Attacks

German Marshall Fund of the United States

·         Cheap Havoc: How Cyber-Geopolitics Will Destabilize the Middle East

·         Drawing Red Lines in Gray Areas—Deterring Russia’s Challenge to Transatlantic Security Today

Global Public Policy Institute

·         Reinforcing Border Control: What’s at Stake for Migrants?

Government Accountability Office (GAO)

·         Automated Vehicles: Comprehensive Plan Could Help DOT Address Challenges GAO-18-132

·         Defense Civil Support: DOD Needs to Address Cyber Incident Training Requirements GAO-18-47

·         Defense Contracting: DOD's Use of Lowest Price Technically Acceptable Source Selection Procedures to Acquire Selected Services GAO-18-139

·         Diversity in the Technology Sector: Federal Agencies Could Improve Oversight of Equal Employment Opportunity Requirements GAO-18-69

·         Food Safety: FDA Continues to Evaluate and Respond to Business Concerns about the Produce Rule GAO-18-85

·         Identity Theft: Improved Collaboration Could Increase Success of IRS Initiatives to Prevent Refund Fraud GAO-18-20

·         Internet of Things: FCC Should Track Growth to Ensure Sufficient Spectrum Remains Available GAO-18-71

·         Southwest Border Security: Border Patrol Is Deploying Surveillance Technologies but Needs to Improve Data Quality and Assess Effectiveness GAO-18-119

·         Navy and Marine Corps Training: Further Planning Needed for Amphibious Operations Training GAO-18-212T [Testimony]

·         VA Health Care: Improved Policies and Oversight Needed for Reviewing and Reporting Providers for Quality and Safety Concerns GAO-18-63

·         VA Health Care: Improved Oversight Needed for Reviewing and Reporting Providers for Quality and Safety Concerns GAO-18-260T [Testimony]

Govini

·         DoD Artificial Intelligence, Big Data and Cloud Taxonomy [free but registration required]

Heritage Foundation

·         The Historical Lessons of Lower Tax Rates

·         Six Budget Gimmicks to Watch for in the December Budget Deal

Hudson Institute

·         Destroy Hezbollah

·         The United States of Anonymity

Human Rights Watch

·         “As If You’re Inhaling Your Death”: The Health Risks of Burning Waste in Lebanon

·         Crackdown on Dissent: Brutality, Torture, and Political Persecution in Venezuela

o    Annex

Hunton & Williams

·         Independent Review of the 2017 Protest Events in Charlottesville,Virginia. Final Report

Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA)

·         Africa Watch, November 30, 2017  

o    Zimbabwe in Transition:  Move Along, Nothing to See Here

o    Liberia’s 2017 Elections:  Fraud, Democracy, and Remnants of the Past

·         Assessment of the Future Economic Impact of Quantum Information Science

·         Enterprise Level Security: Insider Threat Counter-Claims

·         Report on Contractual Flow-Down Provisions in the Federal AcquisitionRegulation (FAR) and Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement (DFARS)

Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC)

·         Post-Marawi Lessons from Philippine Detainees

Institute for Security Studies

·         Peace and Security Council Report, no. 97

Institute for Strategic, Political, Security and Economic Consultancy (ISPSW)

·         After the Earthquake – Perpetual Victims

·         The Changing Dynamics of India China Relations Post Doklam Standoff

·         The Changing Geopolitics in Oceania – A View Towards ASEAN’s Neighbours

·         How South Africa’s upcoming ANC Electoral Conference Will Impact the Country for Years to Come

Institute for the Study of War

·         Al Qaeda Clearing the Path to Dominance in Southern Syria

·         Iraqi Security Forces and Popular Mobilization Forces: Orders of Battle

·         Syria Situation Report:  November 7 - 20, 2017

Institute of International Affairs (Istituto Affari Internazionali)

·         Women, Peace and Security in the Mediterranean

Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS)

·         Asia and Europe: Emerging Potentials for Cooperation

·         Pakistan in Turmoil: Some Crystal Ball-gazing on its Future

International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT)

·         Action Agenda on Violent Extremist Offenders in Prison in Mali

·         Marawi: Winning the War After the Battle

International Crisis Group

·         Venezuela: Hunger by Default

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

·         2017 Handbook of IMF Facilities for Low-Income Countries

·         Resolving China's Zombies: Tackling Debt and Raising Productivity

·         Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy

International Peace Institute (IPI)

·         Reframing the Protection of Civilians Paradigm for UN Peace Operations

Italian Institute for International Political Studies

·         Looking Ahead: Charting New Paths for the Mediterranean

Jamestown Foundation

·         China Brief, v. 17, no. 15, November22, 2017

o    Cold Winter: China’s Envoy to Pyongyang Leaves Without Results

o    Back to Normal?  The End of the THAAD Dispute between China and South Korea

o    U.S.-China Summits Point to Shift Toward Economic Statecraft

o    China’s Relationship with Chile: The Struggle for the Future Regime of the Pacific

o    Rohingya Crisis: Will China’s Mediation Succeed?

·         Terrorism Monitor, November 27, 2017, v. 15,no. 22

o    Al-Qaeda Joins the Kashmir Conflict

o    No Exit for Saudi Arabia—The Kingdom’s War in Yemen

o    Malhama Tactical Threatens to Put China in its Crosshairs

Jewish Institute for National Security of America

·         Countering Iranian Expansion in Syria

MacDonald-Laurier Institute

·         AustralianFiscal Reform Since 1985

·         Bleak Long-Run Outlook for U.S. Fiscal Policy and How to Improve It

·         The Case for Fiscal Reform: Lessons from the Anglosphere

·         Getting Out of A Fiscal Hole: Canada's Experience with Fiscal Reform

·         New Zealand's Fiscal Reform: 1984-1996

·         Response to the Financial Crisis in the Financial Crisis

Migration Policy Institute (MPI)

·         Afghanistan: Displacement Challenges in a Country on the Move

·         From Forced Migration to Forced Returns in Afghanistan: Policy and Program Implications

·         The Global Compact for Migration: How Does Development Fit In?

·         Tens of Thousands in United States Face Uncertain Future, as TemporaryProtected Status Deadlines Loom

National Institute of Justice

·         Assessing and Responding to the Recent Homicide Rise in the United States

Nautilus Institute

·         Vulnerability to Terrorism of Nuclear Spent Fuel: The South Korean Case

Notre Europe - Institut Jacques Delors

·         European Integration via Flexibility Tools: The Cases of EPPO and PESCO

·         Ireland on the rocky road to Brexit

Observer Research Foundation

·         Building a BIMSTEC Agenda for Counterterrorism

·         Our Common Digital Future

·         Spain and India: Seeking Stronger Bilateral Relations

·         US Afghan Success Lies in Forcing Pak to Act against Terrorists

Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)

·         World Wide Threats: Keeping America Secure in the New Age of Terror [testimony]

Overseas Development Institute

·         Climate Change, Migration and Displacement: The Need for a Risk-Informed and Coherent Approach

Oxford Research Group

·         2002 Revisited: After the War, the War  

·         Defining Remote Warfare: Security Cooperation

·         European Military Integration: Implications for the UK

·         The Golden Age of Special Operations Forces

Peacekeeping & Stability Operations Institute (PKSOI)

·         SOLLIMS Sampler, 2017, v. 8, no. 2

·         Operationalizing Women, Peace, and Security

·         Early Warning Systems to Prevent Extremist Violence in Kenya

·         Incorporating Inclusive Security in the Colombia-FARC Peace Process & Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration

·         Institutionalizing a Gender Perspective in the Development of International Partner Capacity to Counter Weapons of Mass Destruction

·         Host Nation Gender Considerations in Humanitarian Assistance/ Disaster Relief  

·         MINUSTAH Specialized Police Team Builds Capacity for Police Response to Sexual and Gender-Based Violence in Haiti

·         Importance of Engagement with Women by Women Peacekeepers – United Nations Experience in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

·         Including All Listeners in Radio Communication in Afghanistan

·         Necessity for Pre-Deployment Training on Conflict-Related Sexual Violence

Pew Research Center Internet & Technology

·         Public Comments to the Federal Communications Commission About Net Neutrality Contain Many Inaccuracies and Duplicates

Pew Research Center Religion & Public Life

·         Europe’s Growing Muslim Population

Polish Institute of International Affairs

·         U.S. strategy on Afghanistan and South Asia: Pakistan’s Key Role

PONARS Eurasia

·         Indigenously Funded Russian Civil Society

·         Russia’s Entanglement in Syria: A Protracted, Extreme Stress Factor for the Russian Navy

·         Russia’s Military Modernization Plans: 2018-2027

Rand

·         Assigning Responsibility Following a Catastrophe: Alternatives to Relying Solely on Traditional Civil Litigation

·         A Peace Plan for Syria IV: A Bottom-Up Approach, Linking Reconstruction Assistance to Local Government Formation

·         Recommendations for a Future National Defense Strategy [testimony]  

Royal Australian Air Force Air Power Development Centre

·         Fundamentals of National Air Power

Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

·         Illicit Financial Flows and Corruption in Asia

S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies

·         19th Asia Pacific Programme for Senior Military Officers (APPSMO)

·         Humanitarian Technology: New Innovations, Familiar Challenges, and Difficult Balances

South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)

·         The UN Global Compacts on Migration and Refugees: A New Solution to Migration Management, or More of the Same?

Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR)

·         SIGAR-18-14-SP Non-Intrusive Inspection (NII) Equipment

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

·         3D Printing and Missile Technology Controls

·         Mapping the Development of Autonomy in Weapon Systems

Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC)

·         Asylum Representation Rates Have Fallen Amid Rising Denial Rates

US Institute of Peace (USIP)

·         Sexual Violence, Exploitation, and Abuse: Improving Prevention Across Conflicts and Crises

Washington Institute for Near East Policy

·         A Better Future for Syrian Kurdistan

·         Beyond Islamists and Autocrats: Prospects for Political Reform Post Arab Spring

·         Have We Forgotten the Women of Yemen?

·         High-Level Contacts Between North Korea and Iran Hint at Deeper Military Cooperation

·         Settlements and Solutions: Is It Too Late for Two States?

·         The Tunisian Revolution and Its Youth: The Democratic Deficit

Wilson Center 

·         Artificial Intelligence: A Policy-Oriented Introduction

·         A Critical Juncture: Public Opinion in U.S.-Mexico Relations

·         Follow the Money: Civilizing the Darkweb Economy

World Bank

·         Doing Business 2018: Reforming to Create Jobs