The Defense Science Board has posted their latest report - 2008 Summer Study on Capability Surprise Volume I: Main Report. Other DSB reports can be foun on their main reports page.
"This report offers important considerations for the Department of Defense in response to future threats to our nation's security. This study concerns itself with the matter of capability surprise, which can arise from many sources - scientific breakthrough, rapid fielding, operational innovation. It considers two fundamental kinds of surprises: 1) those specific few , that because of their unique characteristics and impact, the national should be anticipating- referred to as "known surprises"; and 2) those that arise unexpectedly out of a myriad of other possibilities, seemingly without warning - the "surprising surprises." The premise of the study is that surprise cannot be eliminated, but it can - and must - be managed." [Dr. Paul G. Kaminski, Chairman in his transmittal letter]
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