Friday's Miscellany 12-16-2016

38 North

·         Assessing the Risk of Regime Change in North Korea

·         Instability and Regime Change: Why and How Are Regimes Ruined?

·         Recycling the Playbook: UNSCR 2321 and Its Coal Caps

·         Review of Previous ROK Government Policies for Reunification and Future Policy Options in View of German Reunification

·         The Way Ahead: North Korea Policy Recommendations for the Trump Administration

AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety

·         Acute Sleep Deprivation and Risk of Motor Vehicle Crash Involvement

Airwars

·         Limited Accountability: A Transparency Audit of the Coalition War Against So-called Islamic State

American Enterprise Institute

·         The Outstate Effect

Amnesty International

·         Crimea: In the Dark - The Silencing of Dissent

Army Center of Military History

·         Taking the Offensive, October 1966–September 1967

Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

·         China’s New Spratly Island Defenses

Atlantic Council

·         Spotlight France: Europe’s Swing State

Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)

·         Defense White Papers at 40

Baker Institute for Public Policy

·         The Rule of Law and Mexico’s Energy Reform/Estado de Derecho y Reforma Energética en México

Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB)

·         War & Health. Defining the Protection of Health in War Zones

Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies

·         Chemical Weapons in Syria, Iraq and Beyond: Assessment and Implications

Blue Ribbon Study Panel on Biodefense

·         Biodefense Indicators: A Bipartisan Report of the Blue Ribbon Study Panel on Biodefense

Brennan Center for Justice

·         How Many Americans Are Unnecessarily Incarcerated?

Brookings

·         Addressing the Syrian Refugee Crisis: Recommendations for the Next Administration

·         Aid Effectiveness in Fragile States: How Bad Is It and How Can It Improve?

·         The Emoluments Clause: Its Text, Meaning, and Application to Donald J. Trump

·         Here’s a Blueprint for a Trump-Castro Deal on Cuba

·         Tourism in Cuba: Riding the Wave Toward Sustainable Prosperity

·         Trump’s Team of Rivals, Riven by Distrust

Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)

·         More Than Just Showing the Flag: The Case for Amphibious Ships

CATO Institute

·         Surveillance Takes Wing: Privacy in the Age of Police Drones

Center for a New American Security (CNAS)

·         Future Foundry: A New Strategic Approach to Military-Technical Advantage

·         Surveillance Policy: A Pragmatic Agenda for 2017 and Beyond

Center for American Progress

·         Syrian Immigrants in the United States: A Receiving Community for Today’s Refugees

Center for Global Development

·         Use and Utility of US Government Approaches to Country Ownership:New Insights from Partner Countries

Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS)

·         Homeland Security Affairs, 2016, v. 12

o    What Comes Around, Goes Around (and Around and Around): Reviving the Lost History of FEMA and its Importance to Future Disasters

o    When Guns and Drugs are Democratized: Potential Technical Solutions to Counter the Negative Consequences of Three Dimensional Printing

o    Tiered Response Pyramid: A System-Wide Approach to Build Response Capability and Surge Capacity

Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS)

·         Outlawing State-Sponsored Nuclear Procurement Programs & Recovery of Misappopriated Nuclear Goods

Center for Security Studies (CSS)

·         Russian Analytical Digest: No. 194: Russia and the US Election

Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA)

·         Countering China’s Adventurism in the South China Sea: Strategy Options for the Trump Administration

Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

·         2017 Global Forecast

·         Can America Still Rely On Its Allies?

·         Bahrain Defense Force: The Monarchy’s Second-to-Last Line of Defense

·         Changing Political Economy of Energy in China

·         Do We Need a New Strategy to Prevent Terrorist Attacks on the United States?

·         How Can Multilateral Institutions Work in America’s Interest?

·         How Much Should We Spend on Defense?

·         How Should We View China's Rise?

·         Is the Foundation of the U.S.-led Order Crumbling?

·         Issues & Insights, v. 16 , no. 21 - Strategic TradeControls in the Asia Pacific—Emerging Challenges

·         PacNet #92 - Duterte’s Diplomacy: Not Hostility, but Discomfort with US Values

·         PacNet #93 - Plan B for TPP

·         Russian National Identity and Foreign Policy

·         What are the Key Energy Choices for the New Administration?

·         What are the Main National Security Challenges Facing the Trump Administration?

·         What are the Main Risks We Face in the Middle East?

·         What Could a U.S.-Mexico Partnership Look Like?

·         What Global Economic Risks Do We Face?

·         What Options Do We Have in Syria?

·         What Role Should Values Play in American Strategy?

·         Will Russia Continue to Play the Role of Spoiler?

·         Will the Trump Administration Sustain U.S. Leadership on Global Health?

Center for the Study of the Drones

·         Drones Operating in Syria and Iraq

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

·         The Mapmaker’s Craft: A History of Cartography at CIA

Centre for Conflict Resolution  (CCR)

·         Africa and External Actors

Centre for European Reform (CER)

·         EU Defense, Brexit and Trump: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Century Foundation

·         A Syria Policy for Trump’s America

Chatham House

·         Economic Reform in the GCC: Privatization as a Panacea for Declining Oil Wealth

Clingendael - Netherlands Institute of International Relations

·         Cyber Warfare and Nuclear Weapons: Game-changing Consequences?

College of Europe

·         The European Air Transport Command: A Viable Model for Promoting European Military Cooperation?

Conflict Armament Research

·         Standardisation and Quality Control in Islamic State’s Military Production

Congress. House. Homeland Security Committee

·         Reviewing the Department of Homeland Security’s Intelligence Enterprise

Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

·         Foreign Investment and U.S. National Security

·         Preventive Priorities Survey: 2017

Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)

·         Europe is Losing the Fight Against Human Smuggling in Libya

·         A Viable Libyan Government Must be Built from the Bottom Up

Department of Defense (DOD)

·         2016 - Enhancing Security and Stability in Afghanistan

·         DoD Law of War Manual

o    December 2016 ed. (new)

o    May 2016 ed.

o    June 2015 ed.

·         DOD Plan to Prevent and Respond to Sexual Assault of Military Men

Department of Defense  Office of Inspector General (DODIG)

·         DODIG-2017-030 Joint Warfighting and Readiness: USSOCOM Needs to Improve Management of Sensitive Equipment

·         DODIG-2017-034 Cyber Security: DoD Cybersecurity Weaknesses as Reported in Audit Reports Issued From August 1, 2015, Through July 31, 2016 (Redacted)

·         DODIG-2017-035 Acquisition Processes and Contract Management: The Army Did Not Have Assurance That Heavy Lift Contractors in Kuwait Complied With Contract Requirements

East Asia Institute

·         Challenges and Opportunities for Water Resources Management in a Unified Korea

Egmont Institute Royal Institute for International Relations

·         Permanent Sovereign COoperation (PESCO) to underpin the EU Global Strategy

European Parliament

·         Republic of Korea: Impact of the Leadership Crisis and Security Threats on the Economy

European Policy Centre (EPC)

·         The EU Transparency Register: on the Right Path, But Not Quite There Yet

Finnish Institute of International Affairs

·         Climate Security: Strategy or Necessity for Finland?

·         Europe's New Defence Agenda: Major Hurdles Still Remain

·         The EU’s Security and Defence Policy: Will the New Strategy Bear Fruit?

Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)

·         The South China Sea through the Eyes of China’s Military

·         South Korea’s Lurking Dangers: From Impeachment to Foreign PolicyParalysis

French Institute of International Relations (Institut Français des Relations Internationales)

·         European Security: Challenges at the Societal Level

German Council on Foreign Relations

·         “Aid and Assistance by All Means in their Power”: The EU Mutual Assistance Clause as a Test Case for European Defense

German Development Institute

·         Results-based Approaches in Agriculture: What is the Potential?

German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA)

·         Honduras as a Complex Adaptive System and What It Means for the European Union – The Case of Violence  

German Marshall Fund of the United States

·         Atlantic Currents 2016: An Annual Report on Wider Atlantic Perspectives and Patterns

Global Center on Cooperative Security

·         Delivering Justice: Views from Supreme Courts on Countering Terrorism

·         Strengthening Regional Cooperation to Prevent and Counter Violent Extremism in South Asia

Henley Putnam University

·         Journal of Strategic Security, Winter 2016, v. 9, no. 4

o    Defeating ISIS on the Battle Ground as well as in the Online Battle Space: Considerations of the “New Normal” and Available Online Weapons in the Struggle Ahead

o    Complexity Under Stress: Integrative Approaches to Overdetermined Vulnerabilities

o    Wicked Problems: How Complexity Science Helps Direct Education Responses to Preventing Violent Extremism

o    I SEE! Scotland: Tackling Sectarianism and Promoting Community Psychosocial Health

o    Increasing Cognitive Complexity and Collaboration Across Communities: Being Muslim Being Scottish

o    An IC Intervention for Post-Conflict Northern Ireland Secondary Schools

o    Latent Memories of Terror: Media Perceptions of the Woolwich Attack

Heritage Foundation

·         The Freedom to Pay Lower Prices

·         Regulatory Budgeting: Not Ready for Prime Time

·         Stars Align for the Congressional Review Act

·         Time to Prune the Tree, Part 3: The Need to Reassess the Federal False Statements Laws

Households in Conflict Network

·         An Empirical Exploration of the Near-Term and Persistent Effects of Conflict on Risk Preferences

Human Rights Watch

·         Silencing Turkey’s Media: The Government’s Deepening Assault on Critical Journalism

Institute for Critical Infrastructure Technology (ICIT)

·         Identity and Access Management Solutions: Automating Cybersecurity While Embedding Pervasive and Ubiquitous Cyber-Hygiene-by-Design

Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA)

·         Countering Fidayeen Attacks

Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA)

·         Africa Watch, December 15, 2016

o    Presidential Succession in Angola—A Pause in the Plan?

o    Is Mokhtar Belmokhtar Really Dead?

o    China in Africa: Economic Myths and Soft Power

·         Assessing the Effect of Title 32 Active Guard and Reserves on Personnel Readiness in the Army National Guard

·         Sharing the Burden and Risk: An Operational Assessment of the Reserve Components in Operation Iraqi Freedom

Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC)

·         Update on Indonesian Pro-ISIS Prisoners and Deradicalisation Efforts

Institute for Social Policy and Understanding

·         Caring for Aging Muslim Families: A Needs Assessment

Institute for Strategic, Political, Security and Economic Consultancy (ISPSW)

·         New Security Arc in Mideast

Institute for the Study of War

·         The Campaign for Mosul: December 6-12, 2016

·         Iraq Control of Terrain: December 15, 2016

·         ISIS Recaptures Palmyra in Major Blow to Pro-Regime Forces

·         ISW on Aleppo and the Broader War in Syria

·         ISW ISIS Sanctuary Maps

·         Syria Situation Report: December 8 - 15, 2016

Institute of International Affairs (Istituto Affari Internazionali)

·         EU-India Defence Cooperation: A European Perspective

·         Israel and Iraqi Kurds in a Transforming Middle East

Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS)

·         China and Bangladesh: New Strategic Partners

·         China and South Asia: Towards an Uncharted Order

·         The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump for South Asia

·         Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal: A Strategic Factor in China-South Asia Relations

International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT)

·         Administrative Measures against Foreign Fighters: In Search of Limits and Safeguards

·         Crime and Terror in Europe: Where the Nexus is Alive and Well

·         Rehabilitating Juvenile Violent Extremist Offenders in Detention

·         Why We Cannot Profile Those Who Radicalise to Violence

International Crisis Group

·         Myanmar: A New Muslim Insurgency in Rakhine State

·         Venezuela: Tough Talking

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

·         Automatic Adjustment Mechanisms in Asian Pension Systems?

·         A Balancing Act : Reform Options for Paraguay’s Fiscal Responsibility Law

·         Emerging Market Corporate Leverage and Global Financial Conditions

·         Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates : Does Politics Matter?

·         Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks

·         The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity

·         Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through

·         Non-Performing Loans in the ECCU : Determinants and Macroeconomic Impact

·         Small States' Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change -Role for the IMF

·         A Tale of Transition : An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in Urban China, 1986–2009

·         When China Sneezes Does ASEAN Catch a Cold?

International Transport Forum

·         Human Factors, User Requirements, and User Acceptance of Ride-Sharing in Automated Vehicles [draft discussion paper]

Jamestown Foundation

·         Terrorism Monitor, v. 14, no. 24, December 15, 2016

o    Islamic State in Yemen

o    Foreign Fighters and Sectarian Strikes: Islamic State Makes Gains in ‘Af-Pak’ Region

o    Why Are Egypt’s Counter-Terrorism Efforts Failing in the Sinai Peninsula?

JFK Special Warfare Center and School

·         FY 2017 Academic Handbook

·         Special Warfare, July -December 2016, v. 29. no.2  

o    Objective-T Effort

o    Building Capacity Through the Warrant Officer Tribes 

o    A History of Assessment and Selection

o    Small Unit Tactics: A Foundational Skill Set

o    SERE: Doing More and Giving Back

o    The Relevancy of Robin Sage

o    Operationalizing Cyber to Prevail in the Competition of Wills

o    U.S. Special Operations Forces  in Cyberspace

o    Counter-Messaging Daesh

Konrad Adenauer Foundation (Konrad Adenauer Stiftung)

·         Better Democracy: Principles for a Representative Order

·         Fighting the Symptoms: Why There Is a Long Way to Go to Defeat the So-Called Islamic State

Lowy Institute for International Relations

·         The Development Benefits of Expanding Pacific Access to Australia’s Labour Market

McAfee Labs

·         McAfee Labs Threats Report

MITRE

·         Acquisition Lead Time: Bottlenecks That Threaten Government Effectiveness

·         Proactively Tailored Acquisition Pathways: The “Google Maps” of Accelerated Acquisition

·         Simplifying and Digitizing: Transforming Federal Acquisitions for Speed and Agility

National Academies Press

·         Big Data and Analytics for Infectious Disease Research, Operations,and Policy:   Proceedings of a Workshop

·         The Ebola Epidemic in West Africa:   Proceedings of a Workshop

National Iranian American Council (NIAC)

·         Losing MORE Billions: The Cost of Iran Sanctions to the U.S.Economy

National Security Archive

·         Nunn-Lugar 25th Anniversary Shows Cooperative Security Worked

·         OPERATION CONDOR: Officials of Amnesty International Targeted for 'Liquidation'

NATO Defense College

·         Implementing the Alliance Maritime Strategy in the Mediterranean:NATO's Operation Sea Guardian

Naval History and Heritage Command (NHHC)

·         Writing US Naval Operational History 1980-2010: US Navy Mine Countermeasures in Terror and War

Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI)

·         Rising Nuclear Dangers: Steps to Reduce Risks in the Euro-Atlantic Region

Oxford Research Group

·         The Border Security Paradox

·         Limited Accountability: A transparency audit of the anti-ISIL Coalition

Partnership for Public Service/Center for Presidential Transition

·         Presidential Transition Timeline and Guide

Peace Research Institute Oslo

·         Women Building Peace after Forced Migration: The Case of the Myanmar Diaspora in Norway

Peterson Institute for International Economics

·         Should the United States Recognize China as a Market Economy?

Pew Research Center Journalism & Media

·         Many Americans Believe Fake News Is Sowing Confusion

RAND Corporation

·         Maritime Issues in the East and South China Seas: Summary of a Conference

·         A Modeling Framework for Optimizing F-35A Strategic Basing Decisions to Meet Training Requirements

S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies

·         Building Resilience from Within: Enhancing Humanitarian Civil-Military Coordination in Post-Haiyan Philippines 

Small Wars Journal

·         Missing Economic Strategy in Iraq

·         Pangas, Trickery, Intimidation, and Drug Trafficking in California

·         Special Interest Aliens: Achieving an Integrated Approach

·         The United States and Russia Are Already at War

South African Institute of International Affairs

·         Côte D’ivoire’s Comeback: The Revival of Ivorian Regional Diplomacy

·         South Africa’s State-Building Role in the DRC: Kicking the Can Down the Road

Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)

·         The COIN Conundrum: The Future of Counterinsurgency and U.S. Land Power

·         Enhancing Identity Development at Senior Service Colleges

Transparency International

·         Collective Resolution to Enhance Accountability and Transparency in Emergencies: Southern Somalia Report

US Institute of Peace (USIP)

·         The Current Situation in Syria

·         The Jihadi Threat: ISIS, Al Qaeda and Beyond

Washington Institute for Near East Policy

·         Maintaining Relationships Behind Closed Doors

·         Saudi Arms Restrictions Reflect U.S. Exasperation Over Yemen War

·         Will Assad Target Idlib After Aleppo?

Western Transportation Institute

·         An Assessment of Traffic Safety Culture Related to Driving after Cannabis Use

White House

·         FACT SHEET: National Action Plan on Responsible Business Conduct

·         IMPACT REPORT: Celebrating America’s Federal Workforce

·         Joint United States-Canada Electric Grid Security and Resilience Strategy

·         Supporting Innovation, Creativity & Enterprise: Charting a Path Ahead

World Bank

·         International Debt Statistics 2017

·         Risks and Returns: Managing Financial Trade-Offs for Inclusive Growth in Europe and Central Asia