Friday's Miscellany 02-21-2025

 38 North

• North Korea’s Military Intervention in Kursk: A High Casualty Learning Curve 
• Quick Take: Sinpo-C Class Submarine Leaves Drydock 

 ACLED

• Bombing into Submission: Russian Targeting of Civilians and Infrastructure in Ukraine 
• Germany’s Political Polarization Spills Into the Streets Ahead of Federal Elections 

 Amnesty International

• “I’m a Child, Why Did This Happen to Me?”: Gangs’ Assault on Childhood in Haiti 
• Lives in Limbo: Devastating Impacts of Trump’s Migration and Asylum Policies 

 Army War College Press

• Toward a More Effective DoD Contribution to Strategic Competition in the Western Hemisphere 

 Asan Institute for Policy Studies

• Asan International Security Outlook 2025 

 Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI)

• ASEAN Caught Between China’s Export Surge and Global De-Risking 
• The Rise of CCP Young Elites and Xi Jinping’s “Tsinghua New Army” 

 Atlantic Council

• The 2025 Global Energy Agenda 
• Busting the Top Myths about AI and Energy Efficiency 
• Civil War, Debt, and Ethiopia’s Road to Recovery 
• A NATO Strategy for Countering Russia 
• The Small Reactor Revolution Can Transform African Energy Systems 
• Ukraine Can Unleash Energy Investment Even Amid War 
• Unlocking America’s Untapped Energy Potential Through Enhanced Geothermal Systems 
• The US Must Assure Its Energy-Secure Future 

 Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)

• State-Sponsored Economic Cyber-Espionage for Commercial Purposes 

 Baker Institute for Public Policy

• Policy Issues and Challenges Under Mexico’s New Electricity Reform 
• Profit and Power: Opportunities in the US-South Korea Energy Sector 
• Sustainability and Life Cycle Assessments: Occam’s Razor Does Not Apply 
• US LNG Exports: Truth and Consequence Revisited 

 Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB)

• Exploring the EU’s Polyhedral Peace Mediation in Ethiopia and Sudan: Can the EU be a Suitable Peacemaker? 
• Lone-Actor terrorism in Europe 

 Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

• A New Transatlantic Bargain: The Case for Building a Strong European Pillar 

 Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC)

• Syrian Refugee Return: What Policy Must Do 

 Brookings

• Achieving “Peace through Strength” in the 2020s 
• Does the President Have the Power to Fire or Punish Military Officers? 

 Bruegel

• Europe’s Energy Information Problem 
• The European Union’s New Fiscal Framework: A Good Start, but Challenges Loom 
• How to Improve the European Union’s Sustainable Finance Framework 

 Canada. Department of National Defence

• Canadian Military Journal, Fall 2024,  v. 24, no. 4 
• The UK Future Reserves Research Programme (FRRP) 2014-2018: Results Impact and Reflections
• “Army Reserve Integration in Historical Perspective: Insights from New France”
• Primary Army Reserve – Regular Force Integration Via Mission Tasks: Approach and A Way Ahead
• The Role of Civilian Employment in Predicting Organizational Outcomes among Primary Reservists
• The Challenges of Reservist Employment Programs – SITREP from the Trenches
• ‘It Makes Me Want to Get Out’: Gender and Sexual Violence as they relate to recruitment and retention in the Army Reserve
• Fitness Aboard a Canadian Patrol Frigate: A Case Study

 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace     

• Ukraine, NATO, and War Termination 

 Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity (CLTC)

• AI Risk-Management Standards Profile for General-Purpose AI (GPAI) and Foundation Models 

 Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET)

• Putting Explainable AI to the Test: A Critical Look at AI Evaluation Approaches 

 Center for Security Studies (CSS)

• Analyses in Security Policy
• No. 354: Science, Technology, and Innovation in EU Strategy 
• No. 355: Western Balkans: Swiss Military Peace Support 
• Ukrainian Analytical Digest (UAD)
• No. 11: Warfare and International Relations 

 Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

• The AI Diffusion Framework: Securing U.S. AI Leadership While Preempting Strategic Drift 
• Kenya’s Economic Initiatives in the Democratic Republic of the Congo 
• Kenya’s Green Leadership: Shaping Africa’s Climate Future 
• Mining for Defense: Unlocking the Potential for U.S.-Canada Collaboration on Critical Minerals 

 Centre for Applied Turkey Studies (CATS)

• Germany’s Perceptions of Turkey’s Policy in the South Caucasus 

 Centre for European Reform (CER)

• Can Keir Starmer Reset relations with the EU?: Annual Report 2024 
• How to Build and Fund a Better EU Green Industrial Policy 

 Centre for Information Resilience (CIR)

• The War in Maps: Open Source Data Reveals Scale of Damage to Ukraine’s Schools and Critical Infrastructure 

 Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)

• The National Security and Intelligence Advisor’s Leadership Challenge 

 Chicago Council on Global Affairs

• Three in Four Russians Expect Military Victory over Ukraine 

 Clingendael - Netherlands Institute of International Relations 

• Connecting Shores: Assessing Egypt’s ICT Nearshoring Potential: A Case Study on Opportunities for Dutch Companies 
• Grabbing Ukraine’s Minerals is a Recipe for Further Instability 
• Gradual Integration of Candidate Countries into the European Union: Pushing the Impossible, Delaying the Inevitable?  
• Harnessing the Potential of Digital Global Gateway: Towards Sector-Specific Applications 

 Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

• Understanding the Relationship Between Changes to Federal Fiscal Policy and Near-Term Real GDP Growth 

 Council on Foreign Relations

• Rebuilding Ukraine: Priorities and Strategies 
• Securing Ukraine’s Future 
• Ukraine’s Struggle for Independence in Russia’s Shadow 

 Department of Defense (DOD)

• Executive Orders: Guidance for Federal Personnel & Readiness Policies 

 Department of Defense, Inspector General (DODIG)

• Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) 

 Department of State

• Designation of International Cartels 

 Egmont: The Royal Institute for International Relations

• Trump’s Europe Policy: No longer Different from Russia and China? 

 European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA)                          

• EUAA Glossary of Training Terms 

 European Council on Foreign Relations

• Northern Lights: How a Nordic-Baltic Coalition of the Willing Can Do Even More for Ukraine 

 European Policy Centre (EPC)

• Building Economic Security into Europe’s Clean Energy Agenda: Eight Recommendations for Europe’s Net-Zero Course Correction 
• Healthy Competition: How the EU Can Prepare for the Demographic Transition 

 European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS)

• Reimagining European Energy Security: Towards a Whole-of-System Approach 
• The Trump Card: What Could US Abandonment of Europe Look Like? 

 Federal Reserve Bank of New York

• Outlook-at-Risk: Real GDP Growth, Unemployment, and Inflation 

 Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)

• Trump’s Deal with Putin: A Gambit at Europe’s Expense? 

 Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)              

• Iatrogenic Influence in Information Operations: Lessons from the Global War on Terror 

 Global Network on Extremism & Technology (GNET)

• Combating Islamic State Finance: Central Asia and Around the World 
• Combating Islamic State Finance: West Africa and the Sahel 
• Harnessing AI for Online P/CVE Efforts: Tools, Challenges, and Ethical Considerations 
• The New Orleans Attack: Vulnerabilities of Peer-to-Peer Rental Services 

 Globsec

• Leveraging Artificial Intelligence for NATO’s Cyber Resilience: Preliminary Perspectives 

 Government Accountability Office (GAO) 

• Army Corps of Engineers: Geographic Distribution of Construction Funding for Water Resources Projects GAO-25-107241 
• DOD Reviews and Responses to GAO Reports: Fourth Semiannual Report GAO-25-107695 
• Illicit Finance: Agencies Could Better Assess Progress in Countering Criminal Activity GAO-25-106568 
• Illicit Finance: Treasury's Initial Safeguards for Allowing Access to Information on Corporate Ownership GAO-25-107403 
• Veterans Health Care: Actions Needed to Improve the Foreign Medical Program GAO-25-107149 

 Hague Centre for Strategic Studies  (HCSS)

• Anticipating Regret: The Psychology of Deterrence, in Ukraine and Beyond 

 Hedayah International Center of Excellence for Countering Violent Extremism

• Bridging Research and Practice in Countering Extremism and Violent Extremism 

 Human Rights Watch

• Double Injustice: How Mexico’s Criminal Justice System Fails Victims and the Accused in Homicide Investigations 
• “Forced to Give Up on Their Dreams”: Sexual Violence against Girls in Guatemala 

 Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF)

• A Policymaker’s Guide to China’s Technology Security Strategy 

 Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD) 

• Generative AI and the German Far Right: Narratives, Tactics and Digital Strategies 
• Online Safety Regulation & Private Online Communications: The State of Play and Ways Ahead for Addressing Terrorism, Extremism, Hate, and Disinformation 
• Recommending Hate: How TikTok’s Search Engine Algorithms Reproduce Societal Bias 
• Toxic Tips: Misogynistic Narratives on TikTok in Hungary 

 Institute for the Study of War

• Africa File
• February 20, 2025: M23 Advance Continues Unchallenged; SAF Grows Partnerships with Iran and Russia; RSF Creates Parallel Government in Sudan 
• China-Taiwan Weekly Update
• February 20, 2025 
• Iran Update
• February 17 
• February 18 
• February 19  
• February 20   
• February 21  
• Putin is Unlikely to Demobilize in the Event of a Ceasefire Because He is Afraid of His Veterans 
• Russia Has Failed to Break Ukraine 
• Russia's Weakness Offers Leverage 
• Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
• February 17 
• February 18 
• February 19  
• February 20   
• February 21  
• February 22  
• February 23    
• Ukraine Fact Sheet
• February 21, 2025 

 Institute of International Affairs (Istituto Affari Internazionali)

• Another Transatlanticism Is Possible 
• Building Ambition in the Run-up to Belém 
• The G7 and Sustainable Agri-Food Systems’ Transformation 

 International Crisis Group

• Locked in Transition: Politics and Violence in Haiti 

 International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)

• The Security Implications of Developments in Biotechnology 

 Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions

• Firearm Purchaser Licensing: Research Evidence to Inform State Policy 

 Mitchell Institute

• Ensuring a Spacepower Advantage in Prolonged Competition: Findings and Recommendations from the Space Endurance Workshop 

 National Academies Press  

• Forecasting the Ocean: The 2025–2035 Decade of Ocean Science 

 National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)

• Terrorism and Targeted Violence (T2V) in the United States
• Database Overview 
• Perpetrator Age Characteristics 
• Weapon Types 

 National Defence University (Pakistan)

• Margalla Papers 2024, 28, v. no. 2 
• China's Maritime Pivot: CPEC and the South China Sea Connection
• Analysing Conventional Deterrence in a Nuclearised South Asia
• United Nations Peace Operations on State-Building and Governance in Post-Conflict African States: A Case Study of South Sudan
• China’s Economic Growth and Its Impact On Regionalism
• Decoding Bots of Terrorism In Balochistan
• Gaza Under Siege: Environmental Disaster During Israel-Palestine Conflict, Suggestions and Solutions
• Assessing Military Necessity of Autonomous Weapons Systems (AWS) in Armed Conflicts: A Case Study of Iran-Israel
• Recalibrating US Policy in South Asia Post-Afghanistan: Strategic Implications for Pakistan

 Naval War College

• Naval War College Review, Summer/Autumn 2024, v. 77, no. 3 
• War without Surprises—Education for Command in the People’s Liberation Army Navy
• Toward a Sea-Power Strategy—Chinese Communist Party Debates and Consensus Building under Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, and Xi Jinping
• A Forgotten Dimension of Naval Diplomacy—The Production of Social Capital in the National Interest
• Changes in U.S. Indo-Pacific Military Strategy and U.S. Bases in Okinawa
• Proper Conceptualization of Naval Operational Doctrine—A Case Study of the Israeli Navy
• A Mission in Trouble—Vietnamization and the U.S. Navy

 Naval War College, China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI)

• CMSI Note #12: Finally, A PLA Navy Missile Gap? 

 Observer Research Foundation

• The Benefits of Economic Integration Between India and Sri Lanka 
• Improving Mental Health Care in India 
• Mainstreaming Ecosystem-Based Adaptation in India 
• A New EU-India Strategic Agenda in 2025 
• Strategic Premises for the Future of India’s Air Power 
• Young Bhutan and the World: A Preliminary Survey of Perceptions on Foreign Policy 

 Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)

• Information Disorder in Media Reporting 
• The OSCE in Post-Communist Europe: Towards a Pan-European Security Identity 1990–1996 

 Pew Research Center

• Americans Continue to View Several Economic Issues as Top National Problems 
• How Americans view Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg 
• Trump’s Executive Order on Birthright Citizenship Draws More Disapproval Than Approval 

 Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

• Peace Through Strength in Ukraine: Sources of U.S. Leverage in Negotiations 
• The Ukraine War After Three Years: Roads Not Taken 

 RAND Corporation

• Examining the Feasibility of an East-West Economic Corridor for South and Central Asia: Views from India and Pakistan  
• Harnessing 5G-Era Innovations: Preparations Allies Could Make to Defend Against Attack 
• Steps Toward AI Governance: Insights and Recommendations from the 2024 EqualAI Summit 

 Small Arms Survey

• Unplanned Explosions at Munitions Sites (UEMS) - January 2025 Update 

 Small Wars Journal

• Armed Confrontations and Forced Evacuation from Villages in Chiapas, Mexico: The Uncontrolled Southern Border with Guatemala 
• China’s Political Warfare: The Fight for Taiwan on the Information Battlefield 
• Could Illicit Drug Production Shift to US? 
• Endgame in Ukraine: Time for a Real Strategy 
• The Human Terrain Program Done Right: Legacy of the Soviet Partisan Movement and the Underground Struggle 
• Non-International Armed Conflict – Current Conceptual Challenges: Confronting Organized Crime and Globalization of the Conflict 
• The Strategic Use of Plausible Deniability in Proxy Wars Azerbaijan’s Proxy War (1988–1994) 

 Soufan Center

• A Roadmap to Criminal Justice Accountability for SGBV Linked to Terrorism 

 South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)

• Digging Deeper: Embedding Minerals Sovereignty in Africa’s Mining Value Chains 

 Stimson Center

• Preventing Starvation Crimes: Lessons Learned from Tigray 

 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

• Parameters to Assess Escalation Risks in Space
• Spyware as a Service: Challenges in Applying Export Controls to Cloud-Based Cyber-Surveillance Software 
• The Transformation of Ukraine’s Arms Industry Amid War with Russia 

 Swedish Defense Research Agency

• 121 Readings on Special Operations and Special Operations Forces - A Review of the Literature 2014-2024 

 Taylor & Francis

• Defence Studies, 2025
• The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Officer Corps  [open access article] 
• “Taming the Storm” of Hybridity: The EU-NATO Relationship on Countering Hybrid Threats – From Functional Overlap to Functional Cooperation [open access article] 
• Ethnic and Racial Studies, 2025
• Blaming Minorities during Public Health Crises: Post-COVID-19 Substantive and Methodological Reflections from the UK [open access article] 
• Left Out of the Left Behind? Ethnic Minority Support for Brexit [open access article] 
• Racially Minoritised Students’ Strategies for Navigating and Resisting Racism in Higher Education [open access article] 
• Stop the boats”: populist contagion and migration policymaking in the UK [open access article] 
• Geopolitics, 2025
• The ‘Cultural Life’ of Democracy in Sri Lanka (and Beyond) [open access article] 
• Delimiting Resistance and Resisting the Border: The Case for Strategic Essentialism in Critical Border Studies [open access article] 
• Democracy Matters (To Some Extent): Autocracies, Democracies and the Forced Return of Migrants from the EU  [open access article] 
• Higher Education Under Siege: Attacking Spaces of Hope in Palestine [open access article] 
• International Organisations Are People, Too: IOM’s Role as Coordinator of the UN Migration Network and the Socialisation of International Organisations [open access article] 
• Making All Deserts Bloom: The Racist Space/Time of UAE-Israel Collaboration [open access article] 
• ‘Now You See Me’: Refugees Looking Back at the EU’s Border Camp Watch in Lesvos [open access article] 
• Post-Soviet Dependence with Benefits? Critical Geopolitics of Belarus’s and Tajikistan’s Strategic Alignment with Russia [open access article] 
• Rethinking Energy Geopolitics: Towards a Geopolitical Economy of Global Energy Transformation [open access article] 
• Theoretical Premises of Support of and Opposition to NATO Enlargement [open access article] 
• Towards Financial Autonomy: The Geopolitical Economy of EUR-Denominated Clearing Services Relocation [open access article] 
• Intelligence and National Security, 2025
• How Intelligence Organisations Innovate [open access article] 
• Profiles in Intelligence: An Interview with the 17th Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Moshe (Bogie) Ya’alon [open access article] 
• Shadows of Power Beneath the Threshold: Where Covert Action, Organized Crime and Irregular Warfare Converge [open access article] 
• The “Special Relationship,” and the Overseas Chinese: The Information Research Department (IRD) and the United States Information Agency (USIA) Cold War Partnership in East Asia, 1950s-1970s [open access article] 
• Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, 2025
• Leveraging Social Media Intelligence (SOCMINT) in the African Intelligence Context [open access article] 
• Journal of Strategic Studies, 2025
• Navigating the AI frontier: Insights from the Ukraine conflict for NATO’s governance role in military AI  [open access article] 
• Seeking a New Military Balance: Hans von Beseler’s Concepts for Rebuilding the German Fortification System in the East [open access article] 
• Small Wars & Insurgencies, 2025
• Advocating for Rebellion – Rebel Diplomacy and International Advocacy in the Bougainville Crisis [open access article] 

 Toda Peace Institute

• The Beautification of 21st Century Wars 

 UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)

• Nature-Based Solutions to Multiple Crises : Scaling Urban Implementation in Cities in Asia and the Pacific 

 UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR)

• Changing Tides in Maritime Warfare: Closing the Reporting Gap on Uncrewed Maritime Systems in the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms 

 UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC)

• Bolivia Coca Survey 2023 - Fact Sheet and Executive Summary 
• Bolivia - Monitoreo de cultivos de coca 2023 
• Study on Trafficking in Persons and Smuggling of Migrants in the Context of the Displacement caused by the War in Ukraine 

 United States Studies Centre (USSC)

• Australia–Republic of Korea Dialogue on Security Cooperation outcomes report 

 Wilson Center

• H-2A Reform Scenarios 

 World Bank

• The Deepening Red Sea Shipping Crisis: Impacts and Outlook 
• Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report: The December 17, 2024 Mw 7.3 Earthquake in Port Vila, Vanuatu 
• Inequalities in Sub-Saharan Africa: Multidimensional Perspectives and Future Challenges  
• Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024: Pathways Out of the Polycrisis 
• Repurposing Power Markets: The Path to Sustainable and Affordable Energy for All 
• Services Unbound: Digital Technologies and Policy Reform in East Asia and Pacific  

 World Economic Forum

• Chief Economists Outlook: January 2025 Chief Economists Outlook: January 2025
• Global Risks Report 2025