Friday's Miscellany 11-09-2018

38 North

·         DPRK Notches Up the Warnings

·         How to Structure Sanctions Relief in Any Future DPRK Deal

·         North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: Minor Cleanup Activity

·         North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station: Low Level Activity Continues

·         Toward a Ban on Deployment and Production of Kim’s Missiles

Air University

·         Air Force Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Fall 2018, v. 1, no. 1

o    Opening the Aperture:  Advancing US Strategic Priorities in the Indo-Pacific Region

o    A Short History of US Involvement in the Indo-Pacific

o    Realignment and Indian Air Power Doctrine: Challenges in an Evolving Strategic Context

o    US Military Liberty Restrictions in Okinawa —Falling on Deaf Ears?

o    Evolving Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific:  Deliberating India’s Position

o    Ecuador’s Leveraging of China to Pursue an Alternative  Political and Development Path

Al Jazeera Center for Studies

·         The “Deal of the Century”: The Final Stage of the Oslo Accords

Amnesty International

·         In the Line of Fire: Human Rights and the US Gun Violence Crisis

Atlantic Council

·         The Future of Development Finance

·         How Iran Will Cope With US Sanctions

·         A Road Map of the Re-Imposed Sanctions for Iran

·         US Sanctions: Using a Coercive and Economic Tool Effectively

Australian National University – Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs

·         Why Australia Needs a Radically New Defence Policy

Baker Institute for Public Policy

·         Implications of the Oil Prospects for Latin America

·         The MENA Region in the Global Energy Markets

Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB)

·         Algeria–Morocco Relations and Their Impact on the Maghrebi Regional System

Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA)

·         The 1981 AWACS Deal: AIPAC and Israel Challenge Reagan

·         Can Organized Jewry in Germany Behave “Normally?”

·         Chinese VP Visits Israel Innovation Conference

·         Israel Must Make a Decision on Gaza

·         The Pittsburgh Massacre

·         Pragmatism Drives the Sino-Israeli Partnership

·         There Is No Political Solution for Gaza

Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs

·         Future Directions in IAEA Safeguards

Brookings

·         The Implications of Artificial Intelligence for National Security Strategy

·         Tracking Turnover in the Trump Administration

Bruegel

·         Euro Area Reform: An Anatomy of the Debate

·         Learning for Decarbonisation

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

·         Addressing the Private Sector Cybersecurity Predicament: The Indispensable Role of Insurance

CATO Institute

·         High-Skill Immigration, Innovation, and Creative Destruction

Center for a New American Security (CNAS)

·         Human Performance Enhancement  

Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)

·         Of Suitors and Scoundrels: Russia, the West, and the Limits of Geopolitics in Serbia

Center for Global Development

·         Digital Governance: Is Krishna a Glimpse of the Future?

·         Five Ways to Improve the World Bank Funding for Refugees and Hosts in Low-Income Countries and Why These Dedicated Resources Matter More than Ever

Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM)

·         Morocco’s Political Use of Islam and its Religious Diplomacy

Center for Security Studies

·         Caucasus Analytical Digest: No. 106: Political Regime-Related Country Rankings

·         Cybersecurity and Cyberdefense Exercises

·         Russian Analytical Digest:  No. 226: Russia and the Balkans

·         The Transformation of European Armaments Policies

·         Trusting Technology: Smart Protection for Smart Cities

Center for Strategic and International Studies CSIS)

·         Artificial Intelligence and National Security: The Importance of the AI Ecosystem

·         Opportunities for Future IDB Involvement in Latin America and the Caribbean

·         Rise of Far-Right Extremism in the United States

·         Russian Military Reforms from Georgia to Syria

·         Saudi Arabia’s New Approach in Iraq

·         The United States, Russia, and Europe in 2018

·         What Bolsanaro’s Victory in Brazil Means for U.S. Foreign Policy in Latin America

Center on Global Energy Policy

·         The US Withdrawal from the JCPOA: What to Look Out for Over the Next Year

Centre for European Reform (CER)

·         Is Trump Right to Nuke the INF Treaty?

·         Why a Woolly Political Declaration Might Help Theresa May get Her Brexit Deal through Parliament

Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)

·         The Elements of Sovereign Debt Sustainability Analysis

·         Rethinking Policy in a Digital World

·         Using Insights into Human Rationality to Improve Financial Regulation

Chatham House

·         Civil Society Under Russia’s Threat: Building Resilience in Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova

Combating Terrorism Center (CTC)

·         CTC Sentinel, November 2018, v. 11, no. 10

o    Qassem Soleimani and Iran’s Unique Regional Strategy

o    A View from the CT Foxhole: Patrick Skinner, Police Officer in Savannah, Georgia, and Former CIA Case Officer in Afghanistan and Iraq

o    The Portugal Connection in the Strasbourg-Marseille Islamic State Terrorist Network

o    Converging Factors Signal Increasing Terror Threat to Tajikistan

o    Selling the Long War: Islamic State Propaganda after the Caliphate

Congress. House. Homeland Security Committee

·         Terror Threat Snapshot - November

Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

·         Neither Friend nor Foe: The Future of U.S.-Turkey Relations

Danish Institute for International Studies (Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier)

·         State Caught in the Middle: Coal Extraction and Community Struggles in Tanzania

Data & Society Research Institute

·         Data Craft: The Manipulation of Social Media Metadata  

Department of Defense Inspector General (DODIG) 

·         DoD Oversight of Bilateral Agreements With the Republic of the Philippines

·         Lead Inspector General for Operation Inherent Resolve I Quarterly Report to the United States Congress

·         Lead Inspector General for Operation Pacific Eagle – Philippines I Quarterly Report to the United States Congress I July 1, 2018 - September 30,2018

Department of State

·         Fact Sheet - Constraining Iran's Nuclear Program

·         Fact Sheet - Conventional Arms Transfer (CAT) Policy Implementation Plan Update

·         Fact Sheet - U.S. Arms Transfers Rise 13 Percent in 2018,Highlighting Administration's Success Strengthening Security Partners While Growing American Jobs

The Dialogue

·         Central American Migration: Current Changes and Development Implications

Duke University

·         The U.S. Military in a Time of Geopolitical Strain [event video]

East West Center

·         New Caledonia Votes to Retain French Links & France Retains Its Indo-Pacific Geo-Strategic Position

Economic Research Forum (ERF)

·         Assessing the Intra-Arab Trade Integration and Potential: Evidence from Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

·         The Economics of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Neighboring Countries. The Case of Lebanon

·         Trade Openness: An Effective tool for Poverty Alleviation or an Instrument for Increasing Poverty Severity?

Enough Project

·         Splintered Warfare II: How Foreign Interference is Fueling Kleptocracy,Warlordism, and an Escalating Violent Crisis in the Central African Republic

European Council on Foreign Relations

·         Gaza’s Fragile Calm: The Search for Lasting Stability

European Policy Centre (EPC)

·         The EU Will Not Meet Its Climate Goals Unless It Makes Smarter Use of Its Financial Resources

·         Speech: The State of the European Union

European Strategic Intelligence and Security Center (ESISC)

·         Ethiopia: Recent Turmoil in the Somali State Region Risks to Jeopardize the Security and Political Situation as Ethnic Tensions Spread Across the Country

European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS)

·         Artificial Intelligence – What Implications for EU Security and Defence?

·         European Armaments Standardization

Financial Action Task Force (FATF)

·         Australia’s Progress in Strengthening Measures to Tackle Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing

·         Cambodia's Progress in Strengthening Measures to Tackle Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing

·         Consolidated Assessment Ratings

·         Costa Rica's Progress in Strengthening Measures to Tackle Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing

·         Guatemala's Progress in Strengthening Measures to Tackle Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing

·         Indonesia's Measures to Combat Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing

·         Myanmar's Measures to Combat Money Laundering and Terrorist  Financing

·         Private Sector Business Bulletin

Finnish Institute of International Affairs

·         NATO's Return to the North Atlantic: Implications for the Defense of Northern Europe

·         Turkey’s Presidential System and the Kurds: Increased Resentment,Fragmentation, or Deal-making?

Foundation for Defense Of Democracies (FDD)

·         Evolving Menace: Iran’s Use of Cyber-Enabled Economic Warfare

·         Risks of Doing Business with Iran: A Resource Guide for Germany

Foundation for International Development Study and Research (FERDI)

·         Determinants of Intra-Region and Extra-Region Foreign Direct Investment Inflow in ASEAN: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

French Institute of International Relations (Institut Français des Relations Internationales)

·         The Erosion of Strategic Stability and the Future of Arms Control in Europe

German Institute for International and Security Affairs (GIISA)

·         US Nuclear Deterrence Policy and Its Problems

Government Accountability Office (GAO)

·         GAO-19-13 VA Disability Exams: Improved Performance Analysis and Training Oversight Needed for Contracted Exams

·         GAO-19-19 Dam Safety: FERC Should Analyze Portfolio-Wide Risks

·         GAO-19-39 Defense Management: DOD Should Take Additional Actions to Enhance Corrosion Prevention and Mitigation Efforts

·         GAO-19-42 Arctic Planning: Navy Report to Congress Aligns with Current Assessments of Arctic Threat Levels and Capabilities Required to Execute DOD's Strategy

·         GAO-19-46 Global Development Lab: USAID Leverages External Contributions but Needs to Ensure Timely Data and Transparent Reporting

·         GAO-19-118 Defense Logistics: Actions Needed to Enhance the Security of High-Risk Ammunition at Storage Locations

·         GAO-19-152R Financial Audit: Office of Financial Stability (Troubled Asset Relief Program) Fiscal Years 2018 and 2017 Financial Statements

Hedayah International Center of Excellence for Countering Violent Extremism

·         The World of Communications is the New Frontline in the Battle Against Violent Extremism

Heritage Foundation

·         U.S. Must Pressure Spain Not to Allow Russian Warship Use of Spanish Ports Again

Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA)

·         75 Years Later, Are Lessons From the Bari Incident Still Relevant?

·         Bhutan National Assembly Elections 2018: A Mandate for Change?

Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA)

·         Africa Watch, v. 21,  November 1, 2018  

o    Niger: The Golden Desert

o    Comoros: A Troubled Archipelago

o    Angolan Diamonds: The Challenges of Resource Reform

·         Approaches to Cyber-Resilience through Language System Design

·         Enhancing the Readiness of Expeditionary, Training, and Medical Workforces Through Workforce Mix Reforms

·         User Requirements for the Enterprise Data to Decisions Information Environment

Institute for Economics & Peace

·         2018 Positive Peace Index

Institute for the Study of War

·         Russia in Review: Russia's Lessons Learned in Syria

·         Syria Situation Report: October 25 - November 8, 2018

·         Turkey Brief: Erdogan Ramps Up Pressure on the U.S.

Institute of International Affairs (Istituto Affari Internazionali)

·         Armed Conflicts and the Erosion of the State: The Cases of Iraq,Libya, Yemen and Syria

·         Effectiveness and Potential of European Trade and Assistance Policies in the South Mediterranean Neighbourhood in the Fields of Agriculture,Water and Rural Development: The Case of Tunisia

·         The Mediterranean: A Space of Division, Disparity and Separation

·         A New Frontier of West-China Competition: Academia and International Education

·         Perceptions of EU Agricultural and Rural Development Policies in the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean by European Stakeholders

Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS)

·         Blasphemy, Protests and the Politics of Patronage in Pakistan

·         India-Bhutan: Affirming 50 Years of Relationship

·         India and the Shifting Sands of the Gulf Region

·         The RBI versus the Government: Much at Stake

International Association of Chiefs of Police

·         Police Chief, v. 85, no. 11, November 2018

o    Mental Fitness and Posttraumatic Growth: Using Stress and Traumatic Events to Develop Officers’ Resilience and Growth

o    Blended Learning Delivery: A Strategy for Maximizing Investments in Training

o    Building Public Trust

o    Improved Outcomes in Racially Charged Police Encounters: Making the Case for Decision-Based Training

o    Psychiatric Techniques in the Selection and Training of a Police Officer

o    Chief’s Counsel: Pitfalls with the First Amendment, Arrest, and Trespass

o    Focus on Officer Wellness: The Art of Self-Care: Wellness as a Key Element of Leadership

o    Traffic Safety Initiatives: Tackling Distracted Driving in Washington State

o    Tech Talk: Voice-Powered Policing: Speech Recognition Is Changing the Way Officers Share Mission Critical Information

o    The Brief: Breaking the Stigma: Recommendations from IACP Police Psychological Services Section

International Centre for Counter-Terrorism

·         Cost of Crying Victory: Policy Implications of the Islamic State’s Territorial Collapse

International Crisis Group

·         The Illogic of the U.S. Sanctions Snapback on Iran

·         United Arab Emirates in the Horn of Africa

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

·         Accounting for Macrofinancial Fluctuations and Turbulence

·         ASEAN Progress Towards Sustainable Development Goals and The Role of the IMF

·         A Destination-Based Allowance for Corporate Equity

·         Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets

·         The Price and Welfare Effects of The Value-Added Tax: Evidence from Mexico

Martens Centre for European Studies

·         25 Years of Spitzenkandidaten: What Does the Future Hold?

Migration Policy Institute

·         English Plus Integration: Shifting the Instructional Paradigm for Immigrant Adult Learners to Support Integration Success

·         In Search of a New Equilibrium: Immigration Policymaking in the Newest Era of Nativist Populism

Ministry of Defence - Slovenian Armed Forces

·         Contemporary Military Challenges, October 2018, v. 20, no. 3

o    More Security for Europe

o    On the Way to a European Security and Defence Union or Another Dead End?

o    Strategy and Military Deterrence Capabilities

o    Modernisation within the Hungarian Defence Forces 

o    Armoured Personnel Carrier or Infantry Fighting Vehicle in a Medium Infantry Battalion Group

o    Jihadism and Radicalisation in Selected Regions of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa - A Case Study

MITRE

·         Next Generation Cyber Infrastructure Apex Program Publications

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)

·         Far-Right Fatal Ideological Violence against Religious Institutions and Individuals in the United States: 1990-2018

National Defense University

·         Joint Force Quarterly (JFQ),  91 (4th Quarter, October 2018)

o    Complementary Engagement: An American-Led Response to Rising Regional Rivals

o    Beyond the Third Offset: Matching Plans for Innovation to a Theory of Victory

o    Coercive Gradualism Through Gray Zone Statecraft in the South China Seas—China’s Strategy and Potential U.S. Options

o    Political Warfare with Other Means: 2017 Cyber Attacks on Qatar

o    Peacekeepers in the Donbas

o    Additive Manufacturing: Shaping the Sustainment Battlespace

o    The U.S. Air Force and Army in Korea: How Army Decisions Limited Airpower Effectiveness

o    Beyond the Gray Zone: Special Operations in Multidomain Battle

o    A Smarter Approach to Cyber Attack Authorities

o    Military Transformation: Applying the Kotter Eight-Step Methodology for Change in the U.S. Armed Services

o    Air Force Strategic Bombing and Its Counterpoints from World War I to Vietnam

o    The U.S. Government’s Approach to Civilian Security: Focus on Campaign Activities

o    Building Joint Personnel Recovery Through Multinational Collaboration

o    Joint Publication 4-0, Joint Logistics

National Security Archive

·         The Soviet Side of the 1983 War Scare

NATO Cooperative Cyber Defense Centre of Excellence

·         An Unsupervised Framework for Detecting Anomalous Messages from Syslog Log Files

Office of Foreign Assets Control

·         2017 Terrorist Assets Report - Twenty-sixth Annual Report to the Congress on Assets in the United States Relating to Terrorist Countries and International Terrorism Program Designees

Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)

·         China and the United States: Trade Conflict and Systemic Competition

·         KORUS Amendments: Minor Adjustments Fixed What Trump Called"Horrible Trade Deal"

Pew Research Center Internet & Technology

·         Many Turn to YouTube for Children’s Content, News, How-To Lessons

Policy Exchange

·         Irish Border and the Principle of Consent

Polish Institute of International Affairs

·         The Prospect of Parliamentary Elections in Spain in the Context of the Crisis in Catalonia

Project on Government Oversight (POGO)

·         Brass Parachutes: The Problem of the Pentagon Revolving Door

Rand

·         Improving C2 and Situational Awareness for Operations in and Through the Information Environment

·         Overcoming Challenges Arising from the Creation of National Security Councils

·         Women's Representation in the U.S. Department of Defense Workforce: Addressing the Influence of Veterans' Employment

Royal Australian Air Force, Air Power Development Centre

·         Countering Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)

·         Next Generation Combat Aircraft: Threat Outlook and Potential Solutions

·         Security in Northern Europe: Deterrence, Defense and Dialogue

Small Wars Journal

·         Afghan-Born Soldier Returns Home to be Advisor with the 1stSecurity Force Assistance Brigade

·         The Army Signal Corps Must Change Its Culture

·         As If We Need Another Crisis…

·         “Fragile” Cities: What We are Getting Wrong and Why it is Important to Get it Right

·         Hostile Information Operations and Mass Hysteria

·         The Knights of Which Temple? - Symbolic Camouflage, the Banality of Bricolage and the Dearth of Meaning

·         Trumpism and Tribalism Run Amok in the Middle East

South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)

·         Regional Economic Development in SADC: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead

Stanford University

·         Trends in the Diffusion of Misinformation on Social Media [working paper]

o    Online Appendix

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

·         Arms Transfer and SALW Controls in the Middle East and North Africa: Mapping Capacity-building Efforts

Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)

·         Creating Great Expectations: Strategic Communications and American Airpower

Symantec

·         FASTCash: How the Lazarus Group is Emptying Millions from ATMs

Third Way

·         To Catch a Hacker: Toward a Comprehensive Strategy to Identify, Pursue, and Punish Malicious Cyber Actors

Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC)

·         Immigration Court Backlog Surpasses One Million Cases

Transparency International

·         European Getaway: Inside the Murky World of Golden Visas

UN Assistance Mission for Iraq

·         Unearthing Atrocities: Mass Graves in Territory Formerly Controlled by ISIL

UN Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA)

·         Aide-Memoire: Options for Reflecting Weapons and Ammunition Management in Decisions of the Security Council

Washington Institute for Near East Policy

·         The Case for Muhammad bin Salman

·         Egypt and Washington: Challenges in the Sisi Era

·         Infighting in Nidaa Tounes: A Danger to Tunisia’s Democracy?

·         Moroccan Millennials and the Quiet Cultural Revolution

·         New Governments in Iraq and Kurdistan: A Trip Report

·         The Overlap of Media, Culture, and Intelligence in Iran

·         U.S.-Saudi Security Cooperation (Part 1): Conditioning Arms Sales to Build Leverage

·         U.S.-Saudi Security Cooperation (Part 2): Restricting Operational Support in Yemen

Watson Institute - Brown University

·         Human Cost of the Post-9/11 Wars: Lethality and the Need for Transparency

Wilson Center

·         Beyond Preclearance: The Next Generation Canada-U.S. Border

·         The Evolution of Brazil's Nuclear Policy

World Bank

·         Toward a New Social Contract: Taking on Distributional Tensions in Europe and Central Asia